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nivek_wahs
03-23-2007, 03:26 AM
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/sports/story.html?id=a67a537b-b0d5-4a31-ac4c-bfc0b81f39c7


Stats favour Pats

GREG HARDER, The Leader-Post
Published: Friday, March 23, 2007

The numbers don't lie -- or do they?

A statistical comparison reveals that the Regina Pats are clear-cut favourites in their first-round playoff matchup against the Swift Current Broncos, beginning tonight at the Brandt Centre.

Regina was the superior club in almost every measurable respect during the regular season. In some cases, the difference between the teams was negligible, such as the three wins which separated them in the standings. In other instances, the disparity was much larger, including Regina's 6-2 record in head-to-head games.

That said, all the stats in the world don't add up to guaranteed success in the playoffs.

"Numbers are numbers; you still have to go out and play the game," reasoned Pats GM Brent Parker. "We've had years when we've been favoured and we've had years when we've been underdogs and had successes and failures both ways. To me, when you're looking at a playoff matchup, you have to look at how the teams are playing going in. Both teams are playing very well and both teams beat some good teams. I fully anticipate it'll be a good series based on that."

Parker also expects a low-scoring series.

"(The Broncos) don't score as much as we do but I wouldn't say we're an offensive juggernaut by any stretch," he noted. "Based on that and the fact they have an experienced goaltender (Kyle Moir) and the fact that Linden (Rowat) has had a tremendous second half, I don't envision big numbers. Like a lot of playoff games, it's going to be won and lost on special teams, goaltending and how you play in your own end."

Then there's the mental game.

Although the Pats have an advantage in terms of postseason experience (166 games to 74), neither side has won a playoff series in some time. Both teams were eliminated in the first round last spring after missing the postseason altogether the previous year.

"I think we were just happy to be in the postseason last year," noted Pats centre Kyle Ross. "This year I really think the feeling in the room is that there's a lot of unfinished business."

"I have a good feeling about our group," added Parker. "I sense that it's a confident group. I like the way we've practised the last couple days. I like the way we finished the year. I sense we have a real good belief in each other and a quiet confidence going forward."

KEY MATCHUPS

n Speed kills and both teams have plenty of it.

Veteran centres Kyle Ross and Garrett Festerling lead a Pats' attack that is blessed with depth but not a front-line scorer. Rookie Jordan Eberle is the team's purest marksman.

The playoff savvy of power forward Troy Ofukany, who won a WHL title with Kelowna in 2005, could be invaluable to the Pats. Import Kaspars Saulietis, who played well against Swift Current this season, has shown his game-breaking potential down the stretch.

Michael MacAngus and Brett Leffler are gritty performers who should excel in playoff-style hockey. Myles Stoesz, Mike Reich and Josh Elder can be a physical force -- provided they stay disciplined.

Slick centre Levi Nelson tops the list of players whom Regina will have to contain while veteran Jeremy Schenderling boasts a dangerous combination of power and finesse.

The offensively challenged Broncos have a solid collection of mid-range scorers, but their x-factor could be Kyle Bortis. He's immensely talented but injuries have prevented a breakout to this point.

n The goalie battle between Rowat and Moir has garnered more attention than any other aspect of the series.

Moir, 20, is a wily veteran who owns WHL records for games played (233) and minutes played (12,774), yet he has only made five playoff starts, losing them all.

Rowat, 17, is a first-year starter who has never seen action in the postseason. That said, he is coming off a solid year which affirmed his status as the top-rated WHL goalie for the 2007 NHL entry draft.

n Regina's strength is a deep, mobile blueline led by captain Kyle Deck and Logan Pyett, whose 62 points were fourth among WHL blueliners. Craig Schira and Nick Ross also move the puck effectively while forming one of the best shut-down pairs in the league.

The grit and leadership of Broncos captain Myles Rumsey is complemented by offensive-minded blueliners Eric Doyle and Michael Wilson. Doyle and Paul Postma are young up-and-comers while R.J. LaRochelle provides a veteran influence.

Size isn't an asset of either team's blueline, so look for each side to get physical with the other's defencemen.

n Head coaches Curtis Hunt and Dean Chynoweth introduce similar elements to this series. Both were hard-nosed WHL defencemen in the early '80s who've gone on to successful coaching careers, including stints with Hockey Canada.

Hunt and Chynoweth are experienced and cerebral, so their teams are typically well prepared. Neither coach is likely to have a significant strategic advantage, leaving the players to decide the outcome for themselves.

TALE OF THE TAPE

Regina Swift Current

Avg. Ht. 6'1 6'2

Avg. Wt. 191 187

Avg. Age 18.1 18.0

Record 36-28-2-6 33-36-1-2

Home rec. 25-8-1-2 20-15-1-0

Away rec. 11-20-1-4 13-21-0-2

Last 10 7-1-0-2 7-3-0-0

Penalty Min. 1,531 (4th) 1,642 (2nd)

Goals for 234 (10th) 199 (18th)

Goals agst. 220 (12th) 241 (15th)

Power play 18.8% (6th) 16.6% (12th)

Penalty kill 81.3% (15th) 82.8% (11th)




© The Leader-Post (Regina) 2007