Play off Picture Update

[Scout]

Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Playoff picture update
LAST UPDATED: after games of February 19

Since I last updated this last Thursday, three more teams have clinched playoff spots: Regina, Kootenay, and Medicine Hat. It won't be long before all the other five playoff-bound teams have clinched their spots as well. I can't remember the last time there were no playoff races in this league....the eventual 16 playoff teams have been obvious since before Christmas and there won't be any races to the wire between teams battling for postseason ice versus springtime golf.

Portland and Red Deer are still the only teams mathematically eliminated, although that's going to change really soon with the number of teams right on the brink of that today.

What it will take for the remaining likely playoff teams to clinch:

Swift Current: 0.5 wins or Edmonton losses
Brandon: 1 win or Edmonton loss
Moose Jaw: 1.5 wins or Edmonton losses

Kamloops: 1 win or Prince George loss
Chilliwack: 2.5 wins or Prince George losses

And for the remaining eventual non-playoff teams to be eliminated:

Prince Albert: 0.5 losses or Moose Jaw wins
Saskatoon: 0.5 losses or Moose Jaw wins
Edmonton: 1.5 losses or Moose Jaw wins
Prince George: 2.5 losses or Chilliwack wins

Everything could (should?) be official by the end of the coming weekend.

And the first-round matchups right now, based on points:

#8 Moose Jaw Warriors at #1 Calgary Hitmen
#7 Brandon Wheat Kings at #2 Regina Pats
#6 Swift Current Broncos at #3 Lethbridge Hurricanes
#5 Medicine Hat Tigers at #4 Kootenay Ice

#8 Chilliwack Bruins at #1 Tri-City Americans
#7 Kamloops Blazers at #2 Vancouver Giants
#6 Everett Silvertips at #3 Spokane Chiefs
#5 Seattle Thunderbirds at #4 Kelowna Rockets

The remaining schedules for everyone:

Brandon: 9 home / 4 away (Moose Jaw, Kamloops, Kootenay, Chilliwack, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Moose Jaw, @Swift Current, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Regina, Regina)

Calgary: 3 home / 6 away (Medicine Hat, @Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, @Kootenay, Kootenay)

Chilliwack: 3 home / 9 away (@Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, @Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Swift Current, @Spokane, Kelowna, @Kelowna, Kamloops, Everett, @Vancouver)

Edmonton: 3 home / 9 away (@Vancouver, @Prince George, Tri City, @Red Deer, @Medicine Hat, Medicine Hat, @Regina, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Red Deer, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge)

Everett: 5 home / 6 away (Spokane, @Spokane, Seattle, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland, @Vancouver, Tri City, Seattle, @Chilliwack, @Seattle)

Kamloops: 4 home / 8 away (@Brandon, @Moose Jaw, @Swift Current, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Prince George, @Prince George, Spokane, @Chilliwack, Vancouver, Prince George)

Kelowna: 7 home / 5 away (Seattle, Vancouver, @Vancouver, Spokane, @Seattle, @Portland, Vancouver, Tri City, @Chilliwack, Chilliwack, @Tri City, Prince George)

Kootenay: 6 home / 5 away (@Swift Current, @Moose Jaw, @Brandon, Medicine Hat, Tri City, @Red Deer, Red Deer, Swift Current, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Calgary)

Lethbridge: 4 home / 9 away (Red Deer, @Red Deer, @Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Red Deer, @Calgary, @Kootenay, Medicine Hat, @Medicine Hat, Edmonton)

Medicine Hat: 4 home / 8 away (@Swift Current, @Calgary, Red Deer, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, Edmonton, @Edmonton, Calgary, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge, Lethbridge)

Moose Jaw: 9 home / 5 away (@Brandon, Kootenay, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Calgary, Lethbridge, @Swift Current, Brandon, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Regina, Swift Current, @Swift Current)

Portland: 4 home / 7 away (@Vancouver, @Seattle, @Everett, Kelowna, @Spokane, Everett, Seattle, @Tri City, @Spokane, @Seattle, Spokane)

Prince Albert: 8 home / 4 away (@Saskatoon, Regina, Chilliwack, Lethbridge, Kamloops, Medicine Hat, Calgary, Moose Jaw, @Regina, @Brandon, Saskatoon, @Saskatoon)

Prince George: 6 home / 5 away (@Seattle, Edmonton, Vancouver, Vancouver, Seattle, Seattle, @Kamloops, Kamloops, @Vancouver, @Kelowna, @Kamloops)

Red Deer: 8 home / 4 away (Regina, @Lethbridge, Lethbridge, @Medicine Hat, Tri City, Edmonton, Kootenay, @Kootenay, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, @Edmonton, Edmonton)

Regina: 6 home / 5 away (@Red Deer, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Calgary, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Brandon)

Saskatoon: 10 home / 1 away (Prince Albert, Chilliwack, Regina, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Kamloops, Brandon, Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Prince Albert, Prince Albert)

Seattle: 6 home / 7 away (Prince George, @Kelowna, Portland, @Everett, Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Vancouver, @Portland, Spokane, @Everett, Portland, Everett)

Spokane: 6 home / 6 away (@Everett, Everett, Tri City, @Kelowna, Portland, Tri City, Chilliwack, @Seattle, @Kamloops, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland)

Swift Current: 7 home / 4 away (Kootenay, Medicine Hat, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Lethbridge, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Moose Jaw, Moose Jaw)

Tri City: 4 home / 7 away (@Spokane, @Edmonton, @Red Deer, @Kootenay, Everett, @Spokane, @Kelowna, Portland, @Everett, Kelowna, Spokane)

Vancouver: 7 home / 5 away (Edmonton, Portland, @Kelowna, Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Kelowna, Seattle, Everett, Prince George, @Kamloops, Chilliwack)

[Scout]

Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Playoff picture update
LAST UPDATED: after games of February 20

Chilliwack, Swift Current, and Brandon joined the officially playoff-bound pack tonight thanks to losses by Prince George and Edmonton. Prince Albert also lost and so they are the third team to be mathematically eliminated, joining Portland and Red Deer.

I can't remember the last time there were no playoff races in this league....the eventual 16 playoff teams have been obvious since before Christmas and there won't be any races to the wire between teams battling for postseason ice versus springtime golf.

What it will take for the remaining likely playoff teams to clinch:

Kamloops: 1.5 wins or Prince George losses
Moose Jaw: 0.5 wins or Edmonton losses

And for the remaining eventual non-playoff teams to be eliminated:

Saskatoon: 0.5 losses or Moose Jaw wins
Edmonton: 0.5 losses or Moose Jaw wins
Prince George: 1.5 losses or Kamloops wins

Everything will (probably!) be official by the end of the coming weekend. As you can see, Saskatoon and Edmonton are already in a position where they can only at best tie with the Warriors for the last spot. Not going to happen. Saskatoon has that great friendly schedule remainining - they play 9 of their last 10 at home - but it isn't going to make any difference.

And the first-round matchups right now, based on points:

#8 Moose Jaw Warriors at #1 Calgary Hitmen
#7 Brandon Wheat Kings at #2 Regina Pats
#6 Swift Current Broncos at #3 Lethbridge Hurricanes
#5 Medicine Hat Tigers at #4 Kootenay Ice

#8 Kamloops Blazers at #1 Tri-City Americans
#7 Chilliwack Bruins at #2 Vancouver Giants
#6 Everett Silvertips at #3 Spokane Chiefs
#5 Seattle Thunderbirds at #4 Kelowna Rockets

The remaining schedules for everyone:

Brandon: 8 home / 4 away (Kamloops, Kootenay, Chilliwack, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Moose Jaw, @Swift Current, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Regina, Regina)

Calgary: 3 home / 6 away (Medicine Hat, @Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, @Kootenay, Kootenay)

Chilliwack: 3 home / 9 away (@Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, @Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Swift Current, @Spokane, Kelowna, @Kelowna, Kamloops, Everett, @Vancouver)

Edmonton: 3 home / 8 away (@Prince George, Tri City, @Red Deer, @Medicine Hat, Medicine Hat, @Regina, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Red Deer, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge)

Everett: 4 home / 6 away (@Spokane, Seattle, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland, @Vancouver, Tri City, Seattle, @Chilliwack, @Seattle)

Kamloops: 4 home / 8 away (@Brandon, @Moose Jaw, @Swift Current, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Prince George, @Prince George, Spokane, @Chilliwack, Vancouver, Prince George)

Kelowna: 7 home / 5 away (Seattle, Vancouver, @Vancouver, Spokane, @Seattle, @Portland, Vancouver, Tri City, @Chilliwack, Chilliwack, @Tri City, Prince George)

Kootenay: 6 home / 4 away (@Moose Jaw, @Brandon, Medicine Hat, Tri City, @Red Deer, Red Deer, Swift Current, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Calgary)

Lethbridge: 4 home / 9 away (Red Deer, @Red Deer, @Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Red Deer, @Calgary, @Kootenay, Medicine Hat, @Medicine Hat, Edmonton)

Medicine Hat: 4 home / 8 away (@Swift Current, @Calgary, Red Deer, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, Edmonton, @Edmonton, Calgary, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge, Lethbridge)

Moose Jaw: 9 home / 4 away (Kootenay, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Calgary, Lethbridge, @Swift Current, Brandon, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Regina, Swift Current, @Swift Current)

Portland: 4 home / 7 away (@Vancouver, @Seattle, @Everett, Kelowna, @Spokane, Everett, Seattle, @Tri City, @Spokane, @Seattle, Spokane)

Prince Albert: 8 home / 3 away (Regina, Chilliwack, Lethbridge, Kamloops, Medicine Hat, Calgary, Moose Jaw, @Regina, @Brandon, Saskatoon, @Saskatoon)

Prince George: 6 home / 4 away (Edmonton, Vancouver, Vancouver, Seattle, Seattle, @Kamloops, Kamloops, @Vancouver, @Kelowna, @Kamloops)

Red Deer: 7 home / 4 away (@Lethbridge, Lethbridge, @Medicine Hat, Tri City, Edmonton, Kootenay, @Kootenay, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, @Edmonton, Edmonton)

Regina: 6 home / 4 away (@Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Calgary, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Brandon)

Saskatoon: 9 home / 1 away (Chilliwack, Regina, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Kamloops, Brandon, Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Prince Albert, Prince Albert)

Seattle: 5 home / 7 away (@Kelowna, Portland, @Everett, Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Vancouver, @Portland, Spokane, @Everett, Portland, Everett)

Spokane: 6 home / 5 away (Everett, Tri City, @Kelowna, Portland, Tri City, Chilliwack, @Seattle, @Kamloops, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland)

Swift Current: 6 home / 4 away (Medicine Hat, Kamloops, Chilliwack, Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Lethbridge, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Moose Jaw, Moose Jaw)

Tri City: 4 home / 7 away (@Spokane, @Edmonton, @Red Deer, @Kootenay, Everett, @Spokane, @Kelowna, Portland, @Everett, Kelowna, Spokane)

Vancouver: 6 home / 5 away (Portland, @Kelowna, Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Kelowna, Seattle, Everett, Prince George, @Kamloops, Chilliwack)

[neutral]

Calgary has 9 games left. 8 against play-off teams and 1 against a non-play-off team.

Lethbridge 13 games left. 7 against play-off teams and 6 against non-play-off teams.

With 4 games in hand and an easier schedule remaining for the Canes, this race for first is closer than it first seems.

[dagley]

Eastern Conference playoffs this year are going to be spectacular

[AlanC]

Calgary has 9 games left. 8 against play-off teams and 1 against a non-play-off team.

Lethbridge 13 games left. 7 against play-off teams and 6 against non-play-off teams.

With 4 games in hand and an easier schedule remaining for the Canes, this race for first is closer than it first seems.

Mathematically it's possible, but I think it's a tall order for the Canes. Calgary's magic number is 9....any combination of 9 Hitmen wins and Lethbridge losses clinches first place for Calgary. Even assuming Calgary stumbles a bit down the stretch - say, a 5-4 record? - the Canes have to go 10-3. And Calgary is 4-0 against the Tigers and 5-1 against the Ice this year so having to play those two playoff teams twice each is not as bad as it might seem.

For sure the Hurricanes need to win the March 9 meeting between the two teams in Calgary. If the race isn't over already by then, that game should go a long way towards determining who gets the #1 seed.

[HURRICANE'S ROCK]

Calgary has 9 games left. 8 against play-off teams and 1 against a non-play-off team.

Lethbridge 13 games left. 7 against play-off teams and 6 against non-play-off teams.

With 4 games in hand and an easier schedule remaining for the Canes, this race for first is closer than it first seems.

I have been saying this for a month. Calgary has "seemed" to pull away but with the 4 games in hand and our next 4 games against weak teams, it is still a close race. We play Calg once more @ Calg on the second last weekend and that game could be for all the marbles. First in the Central and first overall in the east now is very important as you get to play the 8th place team. Finish second in the East Division and you have to play the 6th place team. Right now 8th seems like someone other than the Ice or the Hat, and 6th means we will probably play one or the other of them. Both of them have our number kinda this year.

[Scout]

Courtesy Alan Caldwell:

Saturday, February 23, 2008
Playoff picture update
LAST UPDATED: after games of February 22

Kamloops lost tonight and Prince George didn't play, so the Blazers did not clinch a playoff berth today. They'll have to wait until Tuesday to try again for that one point they need.

Portland did clinch last overall with a loss tonight to Seattle though. They're now the favourites to get the first overall pick in the bantam draft for the 2nd straight year. Although, they did not pick first overall last year since they traded the pick. They did earn it though.

Vancouver's win over Kelowna has moved them to within one win (or Rocket loss) of clinching the B.C. division title, which would guarantee them of either the #1 or #2 seed in the Western conference first round.

Some other magic numbers, for the heck of it:

- Vancouver to clinch first in the B.C. and #1 or #2 seed in West playoffs: 1 Vancouver win or Kelowna loss
- Calgary to clinch first in the Central and #1 or #2 seed in East playoffs: 8 Calgary wins or Lethbridge losses
- Regina to clinch first in the East and #1 or #2 seed in East playoffs: 8.5 Regina wins or Brandon losses
- Tri-City to clinch first in the U.S. and #1 or #2 seed in West playoffs: 9.5 Tri-City wins or Spokane losses
- Tri-City to clinch first overall: 10 Tri-City wins or Vancouver losses
- Vancouver to clinch first overall: 10 Vancouver wins or Tri-City losses
- Spokane to clinch first overall: 10.5 Spokane wins or Tri-City losses
- Spokane to clinch first in the U.S. and #1 or #2 seed in West playoffs: 10.5 Spokane wins or Tri-City losses
- Calgary to clinch first overall: 12.5 Calgary wins or Tri-City losses
- Lethbridge to clinch first in the Central and #1 or #2 seed in East playoffs: 12 Lethbridge wins or Calgary losses

And the first-round matchups right now, based on points:

#8 Moose Jaw Warriors at #1 Calgary Hitmen
#7 Swift Current Broncos at #2 Regina Pats
#6 Brandon Wheat Kings at #3 Lethbridge Hurricanes
#5 Medicine Hat Tigers at #4 Kootenay Ice

#8 Kamloops Blazers at #1 Vancouver Giants
#7 Chilliwack Bruins at #2 Tri-City Americans
#6 Everett Silvertips at #3 Spokane Chiefs
#5 Kelowna Rockets at #4 Seattle Thunderbirds

The remaining schedules for everyone:

Brandon: 6 home / 4 away (Chilliwack, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Moose Jaw, @Swift Current, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Regina, Regina)

Calgary: 2 home / 6 away (@Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, @Kootenay, Kootenay)

Chilliwack: 3 home / 7 away (@Moose Jaw, @Brandon, @Regina, @Swift Current, @Spokane, Kelowna, @Kelowna, Kamloops, Everett, @Vancouver)

Edmonton: 3 home / 7 away (Tri City, @Red Deer, @Medicine Hat, Medicine Hat, @Regina, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Red Deer, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge)

Everett: 4 home / 5 away (Seattle, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland, @Vancouver, Tri City, Seattle, @Chilliwack, @Seattle)

Kamloops: 4 home / 6 away (@Swift Current, @Regina, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Prince George, @Prince George, Spokane, @Chilliwack, Vancouver, Prince George)

Kelowna: 5 home / 5 away (@Vancouver, Spokane, @Seattle, @Portland, Vancouver, Tri City, @Chilliwack, Chilliwack, @Tri City, Prince George)

Kootenay: 6 home / 2 away (Medicine Hat, Tri City, @Red Deer, Red Deer, Swift Current, Lethbridge, Calgary, @Calgary)

Lethbridge: 3 home / 8 away (@Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, @Brandon, @Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Red Deer, @Calgary, @Kootenay, Medicine Hat, @Medicine Hat, Edmonton)

Medicine Hat: 4 home / 6 away (Red Deer, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Prince Albert, Edmonton, @Edmonton, Calgary, @Red Deer, @Lethbridge, Lethbridge)

Moose Jaw: 7 home / 4 away (Chilliwack, Calgary, Lethbridge, @Swift Current, Brandon, @Prince Albert, @Saskatoon, Edmonton, Regina, Swift Current, @Swift Current)

Portland: 4 home / 5 away (@Everett, Kelowna, @Spokane, Everett, Seattle, @Tri City, @Spokane, @Seattle, Spokane)

Prince Albert: 6 home / 3 away (Lethbridge, Kamloops, Medicine Hat, Calgary, Moose Jaw, @Regina, @Brandon, Saskatoon, @Saskatoon)

Prince George: 5 home / 4 away (Vancouver, Vancouver, Seattle, Seattle, @Kamloops, Kamloops, @Vancouver, @Kelowna, @Kamloops)

Red Deer: 6 home / 3 away (@Medicine Hat, Tri City, Edmonton, Kootenay, @Kootenay, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, @Edmonton, Edmonton)

Regina: 6 home / 2 away (Kamloops, Chilliwack, Calgary, Edmonton, Prince Albert, @Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Brandon)

Saskatoon: 7 home / 1 away (Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Kamloops, Brandon, Moose Jaw, Swift Current, @Prince Albert, Prince Albert)

Seattle: 4 home / 6 away (@Everett, Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Vancouver, @Portland, Spokane, @Everett, Portland, Everett)

Spokane: 4 home / 5 away (@Kelowna, Portland, Tri City, Chilliwack, @Seattle, @Kamloops, Portland, @Tri City, @Portland)

Swift Current: 5 home / 4 away (Kamloops, Chilliwack, Moose Jaw, Brandon, @Lethbridge, @Kootenay, @Saskatoon, @Moose Jaw, Moose Jaw)

Tri City: 4 home / 6 away (@Edmonton, @Red Deer, @Kootenay, Everett, @Spokane, @Kelowna, Portland, @Everett, Kelowna, Spokane)

Vancouver: 5 home / 4 away (Kelowna, @Prince George, @Prince George, @Kelowna, Seattle, Everett, Prince George, @Kamloops, Chilliwack)