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Scout
03-13-2008, 07:18 AM
Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Thursday, March 13, 2008
Big Wednesday games
Well, Wednesday was an eventful night. Let's see what happened:

1) Spokane and Tri-City both won, keeping their race for first in the U.S. division and first overall even at 104 points. Spokane still has one game in hand.

In the first-overall race, Vancouver just saw their chances go up in smoke. They cannot finish first overall now....at best the Giants can get 106 points, which is currently two more than the Chiefs and Americans have, but the Chiefs and Ams meet on Saturday so one of those two teams is guaranteed to have 106 by the end of that night. That team will also be assured of having more wins than the Giants can finish with, so they've got the tiebreaker over the Giants as well. So, the Giants are locked into the #2 seed now.

2) Kootenay beat Lethbridge, making that race for #1 in the Eastern conference so very much more interesting....more on that in a bit.

3) Regina clinched first place in the East division, guaranteeing them of at least the #2 seed in the conference. They're still in the race for #1 as well. This also means that Brandon, Moose Jaw and Swift Current are all definitely opening the playoffs on the road as they cannot finish any higher than 5th in the conference now. Their only hopes were catching Regina for first in the East and the automatic #2 seed but those hopes are gone now.

On that note, Calgary and Regina have both clinched spots in the top-four in the conference and thus are definitely opening the playoffs at home. Kootenay, Lethbridge, and Medicine Hat are still dueling over the other two spots in the top four. Kootenay and Lethbridge could finish anywhere from #1 through #5. Medicine Hat cannot get #1 or #2 but could finish anywhere from #3 to #7.

Back to the battle for first place in the Eastern conference now....an interesting angle that is developing here is that the Ice have quietly come out of nowhere to be a serious contender for that honour. The Ice are red-hot, having picked up 20 of their last 22 possible points. By beating Lethbridge tonight they are now 3rd in the conference, but the interesting thing is that they have two games left now, and both are against the Hitmen. If they win both games, and both in regulation, then they'll finish ahead of the Hitmen.

If that were to happen, and if both Lethbridge and Regina were to lose one point out of their last three and two games respectively, then the Ice would finish #1 in the conference. Not Calgary or Lethbridge, the teams everyone has been talking about for the last couple months.

Really makes you wonder where the Ice might be this year if they hadn't had such an atrocious start to the year. With a decent September & October, they would have run away with the conference title by now and be right up there for first overall too.

Anyway, there's three nights left in the regular season and there are still four teams who could finish #1 in the Eastern conference. Here's how it breaks down:

- Calgary finishes #1 if they get three more points, or if Lethbridge loses three possible points AND Regina and Kootenay each lose at least one possible point.

- Regina finishes #1 if they win both their remaining games (a home-and-home with Brandon), Calgary loses both their games to Kootenay in regulation, and Lethbridge loses at least one possible point.

- Kootenay finishes #1 if they beat Calgary in regulation in both games, and both Regina and Lethbridge each lose at least one possible point.

- Lethbridge finishes #1 if they win all three of their remaining games. Period. If they don't get all six points then they're down to a prayer: they need five points, AND they need Kootenay to win both games against Calgary, but have the Hitmen get a loser point in ONE game. That would create a three-way tie with 96 points, which the Hurricanes would win due to both them and Calgary having more wins than the Ice (knocking the Ice out) and a better head-to-head record over the Hitmen. It's such a longshot, they better just win all three of their games. But I think Lethbridge may have done in their chances at #1 with their loss tonight.

HURRICANE'S ROCK
03-13-2008, 11:43 AM
Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Thursday, March 13, 2008
Big Wednesday games
Well, Wednesday was an eventful night. Let's see what happened:
Back to the battle for first place in the Eastern conference now....an interesting angle that is developing here is that the Ice have quietly come out of nowhere to be a serious contender for that honour. The Ice are red-hot, having picked up 20 of their last 22 possible points. By beating Lethbridge tonight they are now 3rd in the conference, but the interesting thing is that they have two games left now, and both are against the Hitmen. If they win both games, and both in regulation, then they'll finish ahead of the Hitmen.

If that were to happen, and if both Lethbridge and Regina were to lose one point out of their last three and two games respectively, then the Ice would finish #1 in the conference. Not Calgary or Lethbridge, the teams everyone has been talking about for the last couple months..

Not exactly right. The Canes would still get first in your scenario if they lose only 1 point. They need to lose 2 points, and Koot win both thier games for the Ice to claim first. In order for Lethbridge to get the 5 points in your scenario (losing only 1 point) and finish tied with 96 points with the Ice, they will have to win 2 games, which would give them 45 wins to Kootenay's 44.
This means the Ice can win out and not get first so they and the Canes no longer control thier own destiny. Calgary now is the only team that controls it own destiny in the top 5 clubs.
Also of note is that Swift, Brandon and M.J. will be relegated to either 6th 7th or 8th if all of the top teams 5 get just 1 more point, which seems likely.

HURRICANE'S ROCK
03-13-2008, 12:04 PM
[QUOTE=Scout]Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Thursday, March 13, 2008

- Regina finishes #1 if they win both their remaining games (a home-and-home with Brandon), Calgary loses both their games to Kootenay in regulation, and Lethbridge loses at least one possible point.QUOTE]

Calgary does not have to lose both in "regulation" time, They can get 1 O/T loss and tie Regina with 45 wins and 96 points. Regina still gets first because of a better head to head record. It is wierd, however all 3 teams (Calg Leth Pat's) can be tied at 96 points with 45 wins and this screws Regina. Calg will get first (goals for & against on both teams), Regina second and Leth third for all rounds (Reg better head to head with Leth). So even though Calg and Regina have exact same record in both scenarios, in the first scenario the Pat's get first and the other Calg gets first. Would suck for the Pat's.
Something even stranger for Kootenay. They could even get 96 points and ALL 4 TEAMS BE TIED FOR FIRST AT 96 points. The Ice lose out on the first tie breaker and will be relegated to fourth.
I am certain that this has never happened in any sport anywhere anytime. Tie for first and end up in fourth!!!!!!!!!!!! That's gotta suck huge.

HURRICANE'S ROCK
03-13-2008, 12:09 PM
Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Thursday, March 13, 2008
Big Wednesday games

- Lethbridge finishes #1 if they win all three of their remaining games. Period. .

Leth can win all 3 but lose first place to Calgary even if Calg loses 1 point. The Hitmen must lose 1 game in regulation or 2 full points somehow for Leth to claim first. As I stated earlier, Calgary, not Leth is now the only team to control it's own destiny.

HURRICANE'S ROCK
03-13-2008, 12:20 PM
Courtesy Alan Caldwell

Thursday, March 13, 2008
Big Wednesday games

- Lethbridge finishes #1 if they win all three of their remaining games. Period. If they don't get all six points then they're down to a prayer: they need five points, AND they need Kootenay to win both games against Calgary, but have the Hitmen get a loser point in ONE game. That would create a three-way tie with 96 points, which the Hurricanes would win due to both them and Calgary having more wins than the Ice (knocking the Ice out) and a better head-to-head record over the Hitmen. It's such a longshot, they better just win all three of their games. But I think Lethbridge may have done in their chances at #1 with their loss tonight.

Kootenay can win both in regulation and Calgary does not have to get one loser point for Leth to finish first. If Koot wins both in regulation and we get the 5 points in your scenario, we finish with 96 pts, Koot 96 and Calg 95. We beat the Ice with 45 wins to 44.