nivek_wahs
07-15-2008, 03:43 PM
Alan Caldwell has a look ahead at the 2008-09 WHL Overager situations
http://smallatlarge.blogspot.com/2008/07/08-09-look-ahead-overagers.html
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
08-09 look ahead: overagers
It's the dog days of the offseason right now, the time between the NHL draft and the start of WHL training camps where nothing much seems to happen. So, to help pass time, here's a look at the potential overage situations around the league.
Basically what I've done is listed all the 07-08 19 year old who are still property of their 07-08 team and thus (only theoretically, in some cases) eligible to play as overagers in 08-09. Then a few notes about who I think the likely three choices would be if the season started tomorrow.
Brandon Wheat Kings: Daniel Bartek (F), Andrew Clark (F), Chad Erb (D), Matt Lowry (F), Matt McCue (D)
Bartek is a two-spot player and won't be back but the other four should all be in the mix. Clark and Lowry are probably locks for spots, based on their numbers last year. Plus, there are four younger defencemen returning which means they probably only need one of Erb or McCue. I'd go with Erb. McCue might find work somewhere else in the WHL but more realistically is probably headed for Jr A.
Calgary Hitmen: Karl Alzner (D), Kyle Bortis (F), Ian Duval (F), T.J. Galiardi (F), Carson McMillan (F), Keith Seabrook (D), Dan Spence (G), Ryan White (F)
Alzner, Galiardi, and White have signed pro contracts and will not be back. The other five all likely will be. Bortis is a lock for a spot, and while Seabrook didn't have a great year last year the Hitmen probably need another veteran guy on the blueline so he stays too. Duval and McMillan should battle for the third spot; I'd pick Duval. McMillan will definitely find a new home in the WHL, probably via trade. Spence might too if some team needs a middle-of-the-pack calibre starting goalie enough to use an overage spot on him.
Chilliwack Bruins: Partik Bhungal (F), Evan Pighin (F), Mark Santorelli (F)
Could be a couple solid guys here, or it could be pretty slim pickings. Santorelli is likely headed pro but could be returned for another junior season. Pighin appears set on dropping down to Jr A unless the Bruins can convince him otherwise. If both those guys are back, that's huge for the Bruins. If neither are, they're going to be in the market for a couple impact O/A's because Bhungal is strictly a role player. He might keep his spot in Chilliwack by default but he might not make the cut on a lot of other teams in the league. As for what the Bruins might be looking for in O/A's to acquire....they need everything except maybe a goalie. Definitely at least one more top-three forward (good luck getting one of those) and a top-four defenceman.
Edmonton Oil Kings: Cameron Cepek (D), Brenden Dowd (F), Robin Figren (F), Jeff Lee (F), Brandon Lockerby (D), J-P Szaszkiewicz (F)
Figren is gone pro. The other five should be back; I'm thinking I'd keep Cepek, Dowd, and Szaszkiewicz if I were them but on the other hand, the Oil King blueline is so horrible looking for next year that they might need to keep Lockerby too just to have another veteran guy.
Everett Silvertips: Taylor Ellington (D), Eric English (F), Zach Hamill (F), Jonathan Harty (D), Leland Irving (G), Graham Potuer (D)
Hamill and Irving are gone pro and Harty has left the WHL to pursue his education. The other three should be back but I can't see English sticking around since most overagers need to get more than three shifts a game to have a spot. So the Tips could be looking to add an O/A, perhaps a defenceman with some puck-moving abilities if one is available.
Kamloops Blazers: Brady Calla (F), Kenton Dulle (F), Juuso Puustinen (F), Ivan Rohac (F), Scott Wasden (F)
Spencer Fraipont and Sasha Golin were released by the team. Puustinen and Rohac are headed back overseas, and Calla is expected to turn pro. That leaves Dulle and Wasden as the only candidates, with room for one more. I'm thinking they could use a defenceman with some size.
Kelowna Rockets: Tysen Dowzak (D), Myles MacRae (F)
MacRae has told the Rockets he wishes to drop down to Jr A next year and he'll probably be allowed to do that, leaving Dowzak as the only overager on the current Rockets roster. What they're looking for probably depends on whether they lose one of Luke Schenn or Tyler Myers (or even both!) to the NHL this year. If they lose one or both of those guys then they'll probably be looking for veteran defencemen to replace them. If they get both those guys back, then they might have the best defence in the league and look for the Rockets to round out a pretty solid looking team with some more forwards. In fact, there might not even be room for Dowzak on that blueline if Schenn and Myers are back....so maybe see Dowzak swapped for a forward too in that case.
Kootenay Ice: Andrew Bailey (F), Ian Barteaux (D), Eric Frere (D), Arnaud Jacquemet (F), Kris Lazaruk (G), Ben Maxwell (F), Zach Sim (D)
Maxwell is gone pro and Jacquemet is playing in Europe next year. The other five should be back to fight for three spots and by far the biggest decision is whether to keep Kris Lazaruk or hand the goaltending reins over to Thomas Heemskerk and Nathan Lieuwen. All three of those goalies are going to be in the WHL next year but only two in Cranbrook. They can keep Lazaruk and apprentice one of Heemskerk/Lieuwen as his backup again next year (trading the other one) or they can deal Lazaruk and go with the two younger goalies. I think they choose the latter option and deal Lazaruk, which should get them a good return from a team needing a goalie (give Bob Green or Chad Lang a call!). I'd then keep Bailey, Barteaux, and Frere as the three overagers. Sim will either find a new spot in the league or drop down to Jr A.
Lethbridge Hurricanes: Adam Chorneyko (F), Mitch Fadden (F), Paul MacDonald (D), Michael Maniago (G), Mitch Versteeg (D), Ben Wright (D)
Five of these guys will definitely be back; the sixth, Fadden, may turn pro but there's also a good chance he'll be back in the WHL. Not in Lethbridge though, as G.M. Ray Stasiuk already all but said that Fadden would be traded if he returned. Maniago is also going to be on the outside looking in, as the team does not need an overage backup goalie. He'll be dealt or released as well. Between the other four, Wright is a lock and Chorneyko is a good bet too since the team doesn't need three O/A defencemen. The third spot would be between Versteeg and MacDonald. I'd bet on Versteeg. Should Fadden indeed return to the Hurricanes, then he's a lock too of course but we're assuming he's not back one way or the other.
Medicine Hat Tigers: Mikael Ahlen (F), Jordan Bendfeld (D), Brennan Bosch (F), Sean Ringrose (F)
Ahlen is not coming back; the other three are. And not a bad threesome they are either.
Moose Jaw Warriors: Keaton Ellerby (D), Evan Fuller (F), Ryley Grantham (F), Riley Holzapfel (F), Jordan Knackstedt (F), Brett Ward (D), Ty Wishart (D)
Ellerby, Holzapfel, and Wishart are gone to the pros. Knackstedt and Grantham are drafted as well but I think we'll probably see them both back, leaving four players to compete for three spots. Knackstedt and Grantham probably lock up spots, leaving Fuller vs. Ward for the third spot although I think the Tribe might want to look at acquiring a goalie for that third spot. If they don't, then I probably keep Fuller over Ward since there is decent blueline depth.
Portland Winter Hawks: Scott Gabriel (D), Matt Schmermund (F), Tyler Swystun (F), Jordan White (G)
All four should be back but I can't see them keeping White as an overage backup to Kurtis Mucha. They need to groom a younger goalie since they could possibly lose Mucha to the pros after this season. Gabriel, Schmermund, and Swystun could be their three guys although honestly, is Scott Gabriel an overage-calibre player? I think he can be upgraded via a trade
Prince Albert Raiders: Justin Bernhardt (F), Max Brandl (F), Jared Jagow (F), Ryan McDonald (F), Matt Robertson (F)
Brandl won't be back. The other four will, with Jagow being the amazingly obvious odd man out. Nothing against Jagow but the other three are all 65-75 point players at least.
Prince George Cougars: Kevin Armstrong (G), Patrik Magnusson (D), Tommy Tartaglione (G)
Of those three, only Armstrong is going to be there this year. Magnusson is not expected back from Sweden, and Armstrong's presence ensures Tartaglione doesn't have a job. Look for the Cougars to acquire a couple more overagers, at least one a defenceman to add experience to that blueline.
Red Deer Rebels: Luke Egener (D), James Reimer (G), Carter Smith (F), Brennen Wray (F)
Reimer is expected to turn pro, leaving the other three. I'm not sure Carter Smith will stick around though, there have to be upgrades available out there for a team that will badly need some veteran scoring and leadership, especially if they lose Brandon Sutter to the NHL.
Regina Pats: Victor Bartley (D), Ryan DePape (F), Scott Doucet (F), Josh Elder (F), Kirt Hill (F), Michael MacAngus (F), Logan Pyett (D)
Pyett is turning pro but the other six should all be back, which means there's going to be some tough decisions for the new Pats coach to make. I think they keep Bartley, MacAngus, and Doucet, with DePape and Hill for sure finding new teams out there. Elder might too, but he might also be too one-dimensional for an O/A spot in the WHL.
Saskatoon Blades: Colin Joe (D), Garrett Klotz (F), Mike Reich (F)
Klotz is expected to turn pro but both Joe and Reich should be back, with one open spot to fill. They can probably use a top-six forward, especially if they lose Colton Gillies to the NHL. And personally I wouldn't waste an overage spot on Mike Reich's tired act either so if there were a better option out there, don't be surprised if the Blades took it.
Seattle Thunderbirds: Riku Helenius (G), Ashton Hewson (F), Bud Holloway (F), Devon LeBlanc (F), Greg Scott (F)
Helenius, Holloway, and Scott are all gone to the pros, leaving only the recently-acquired Hewson and LeBlanc on the Seattle roster. One more spot available to fill. Probably a defenceman, especially if they lose Thomas Hickey to the NHL.
Spokane Chiefs: Seth Compton (F), Justin Falk (D), Trevor Glass (D), Curtis Kelner (F), Justin McCrae (F)
The Chiefs could lose Falk and maybe McCrae to the pros, but they could also get everyone back too. Two things seem certain to me, and that's that Glass is a keeper and Kelner is an odd man out regardless of how the Falk/McCrae situation goes. Compton's spot probably depends on whether the Chiefs get one or both of Falk/McCrae back. He should have a job somewhere in the WHL for sure though.
Swift Current Broncos: Keegan Dansereau (F), Jesse Dudas (D), Spencer McAvoy (D), Levi Nelson (F), Zack Smith (F), David Stieler (F), Dale Weise (F), Travis Yonkman (G)
Some of the toughest overage decisions in the WHL this fall are in Speedy Creek. Stieler is not coming back as a two-spotter and Nelson is turning pro but the other six guys should all be back and only three of them can stay. I think Yonkman is a lock and probably Dansereau is too, but try and pick one more out of Dudas, Smith, and Weise. Doesn't look good for McAvoy but he, along with the two losers from the Dudas/Smith/Weise trio, should be able to find other spots in the league. Oh, and I'd probably keep Dudas as the third guy, just because they probably need another body on defence more than they need it up front.
Tri-City Americans: Drew Hoff (F), Blair Macaulay (F), Radek Meidl (F), Taylor Procyshen (F), Jason Reese (F)
Meidl isn't expected back; the other four are. I think they have to go with Macauley, Procyshen, and Reese, which makes Hoff the odd man out.
Vancouver Giants: Mike Berube (D), Chris Cloud (F), Spencer Machacek (F), Casey Pierro-Zabotel (F), Michal Repik (F), Craig Schira (D)
Machacek and Repik are gone to the pros, leaving the other four guys to compete for three spots. I think Schira and Pierro-Zabotel are good bets for two of the spots, and Berube's resurrection of his career last year probably gets him the third spot over Cloud.
Posted by Alan Caldwell at 2:26 PM
http://smallatlarge.blogspot.com/2008/07/08-09-look-ahead-overagers.html
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
08-09 look ahead: overagers
It's the dog days of the offseason right now, the time between the NHL draft and the start of WHL training camps where nothing much seems to happen. So, to help pass time, here's a look at the potential overage situations around the league.
Basically what I've done is listed all the 07-08 19 year old who are still property of their 07-08 team and thus (only theoretically, in some cases) eligible to play as overagers in 08-09. Then a few notes about who I think the likely three choices would be if the season started tomorrow.
Brandon Wheat Kings: Daniel Bartek (F), Andrew Clark (F), Chad Erb (D), Matt Lowry (F), Matt McCue (D)
Bartek is a two-spot player and won't be back but the other four should all be in the mix. Clark and Lowry are probably locks for spots, based on their numbers last year. Plus, there are four younger defencemen returning which means they probably only need one of Erb or McCue. I'd go with Erb. McCue might find work somewhere else in the WHL but more realistically is probably headed for Jr A.
Calgary Hitmen: Karl Alzner (D), Kyle Bortis (F), Ian Duval (F), T.J. Galiardi (F), Carson McMillan (F), Keith Seabrook (D), Dan Spence (G), Ryan White (F)
Alzner, Galiardi, and White have signed pro contracts and will not be back. The other five all likely will be. Bortis is a lock for a spot, and while Seabrook didn't have a great year last year the Hitmen probably need another veteran guy on the blueline so he stays too. Duval and McMillan should battle for the third spot; I'd pick Duval. McMillan will definitely find a new home in the WHL, probably via trade. Spence might too if some team needs a middle-of-the-pack calibre starting goalie enough to use an overage spot on him.
Chilliwack Bruins: Partik Bhungal (F), Evan Pighin (F), Mark Santorelli (F)
Could be a couple solid guys here, or it could be pretty slim pickings. Santorelli is likely headed pro but could be returned for another junior season. Pighin appears set on dropping down to Jr A unless the Bruins can convince him otherwise. If both those guys are back, that's huge for the Bruins. If neither are, they're going to be in the market for a couple impact O/A's because Bhungal is strictly a role player. He might keep his spot in Chilliwack by default but he might not make the cut on a lot of other teams in the league. As for what the Bruins might be looking for in O/A's to acquire....they need everything except maybe a goalie. Definitely at least one more top-three forward (good luck getting one of those) and a top-four defenceman.
Edmonton Oil Kings: Cameron Cepek (D), Brenden Dowd (F), Robin Figren (F), Jeff Lee (F), Brandon Lockerby (D), J-P Szaszkiewicz (F)
Figren is gone pro. The other five should be back; I'm thinking I'd keep Cepek, Dowd, and Szaszkiewicz if I were them but on the other hand, the Oil King blueline is so horrible looking for next year that they might need to keep Lockerby too just to have another veteran guy.
Everett Silvertips: Taylor Ellington (D), Eric English (F), Zach Hamill (F), Jonathan Harty (D), Leland Irving (G), Graham Potuer (D)
Hamill and Irving are gone pro and Harty has left the WHL to pursue his education. The other three should be back but I can't see English sticking around since most overagers need to get more than three shifts a game to have a spot. So the Tips could be looking to add an O/A, perhaps a defenceman with some puck-moving abilities if one is available.
Kamloops Blazers: Brady Calla (F), Kenton Dulle (F), Juuso Puustinen (F), Ivan Rohac (F), Scott Wasden (F)
Spencer Fraipont and Sasha Golin were released by the team. Puustinen and Rohac are headed back overseas, and Calla is expected to turn pro. That leaves Dulle and Wasden as the only candidates, with room for one more. I'm thinking they could use a defenceman with some size.
Kelowna Rockets: Tysen Dowzak (D), Myles MacRae (F)
MacRae has told the Rockets he wishes to drop down to Jr A next year and he'll probably be allowed to do that, leaving Dowzak as the only overager on the current Rockets roster. What they're looking for probably depends on whether they lose one of Luke Schenn or Tyler Myers (or even both!) to the NHL this year. If they lose one or both of those guys then they'll probably be looking for veteran defencemen to replace them. If they get both those guys back, then they might have the best defence in the league and look for the Rockets to round out a pretty solid looking team with some more forwards. In fact, there might not even be room for Dowzak on that blueline if Schenn and Myers are back....so maybe see Dowzak swapped for a forward too in that case.
Kootenay Ice: Andrew Bailey (F), Ian Barteaux (D), Eric Frere (D), Arnaud Jacquemet (F), Kris Lazaruk (G), Ben Maxwell (F), Zach Sim (D)
Maxwell is gone pro and Jacquemet is playing in Europe next year. The other five should be back to fight for three spots and by far the biggest decision is whether to keep Kris Lazaruk or hand the goaltending reins over to Thomas Heemskerk and Nathan Lieuwen. All three of those goalies are going to be in the WHL next year but only two in Cranbrook. They can keep Lazaruk and apprentice one of Heemskerk/Lieuwen as his backup again next year (trading the other one) or they can deal Lazaruk and go with the two younger goalies. I think they choose the latter option and deal Lazaruk, which should get them a good return from a team needing a goalie (give Bob Green or Chad Lang a call!). I'd then keep Bailey, Barteaux, and Frere as the three overagers. Sim will either find a new spot in the league or drop down to Jr A.
Lethbridge Hurricanes: Adam Chorneyko (F), Mitch Fadden (F), Paul MacDonald (D), Michael Maniago (G), Mitch Versteeg (D), Ben Wright (D)
Five of these guys will definitely be back; the sixth, Fadden, may turn pro but there's also a good chance he'll be back in the WHL. Not in Lethbridge though, as G.M. Ray Stasiuk already all but said that Fadden would be traded if he returned. Maniago is also going to be on the outside looking in, as the team does not need an overage backup goalie. He'll be dealt or released as well. Between the other four, Wright is a lock and Chorneyko is a good bet too since the team doesn't need three O/A defencemen. The third spot would be between Versteeg and MacDonald. I'd bet on Versteeg. Should Fadden indeed return to the Hurricanes, then he's a lock too of course but we're assuming he's not back one way or the other.
Medicine Hat Tigers: Mikael Ahlen (F), Jordan Bendfeld (D), Brennan Bosch (F), Sean Ringrose (F)
Ahlen is not coming back; the other three are. And not a bad threesome they are either.
Moose Jaw Warriors: Keaton Ellerby (D), Evan Fuller (F), Ryley Grantham (F), Riley Holzapfel (F), Jordan Knackstedt (F), Brett Ward (D), Ty Wishart (D)
Ellerby, Holzapfel, and Wishart are gone to the pros. Knackstedt and Grantham are drafted as well but I think we'll probably see them both back, leaving four players to compete for three spots. Knackstedt and Grantham probably lock up spots, leaving Fuller vs. Ward for the third spot although I think the Tribe might want to look at acquiring a goalie for that third spot. If they don't, then I probably keep Fuller over Ward since there is decent blueline depth.
Portland Winter Hawks: Scott Gabriel (D), Matt Schmermund (F), Tyler Swystun (F), Jordan White (G)
All four should be back but I can't see them keeping White as an overage backup to Kurtis Mucha. They need to groom a younger goalie since they could possibly lose Mucha to the pros after this season. Gabriel, Schmermund, and Swystun could be their three guys although honestly, is Scott Gabriel an overage-calibre player? I think he can be upgraded via a trade
Prince Albert Raiders: Justin Bernhardt (F), Max Brandl (F), Jared Jagow (F), Ryan McDonald (F), Matt Robertson (F)
Brandl won't be back. The other four will, with Jagow being the amazingly obvious odd man out. Nothing against Jagow but the other three are all 65-75 point players at least.
Prince George Cougars: Kevin Armstrong (G), Patrik Magnusson (D), Tommy Tartaglione (G)
Of those three, only Armstrong is going to be there this year. Magnusson is not expected back from Sweden, and Armstrong's presence ensures Tartaglione doesn't have a job. Look for the Cougars to acquire a couple more overagers, at least one a defenceman to add experience to that blueline.
Red Deer Rebels: Luke Egener (D), James Reimer (G), Carter Smith (F), Brennen Wray (F)
Reimer is expected to turn pro, leaving the other three. I'm not sure Carter Smith will stick around though, there have to be upgrades available out there for a team that will badly need some veteran scoring and leadership, especially if they lose Brandon Sutter to the NHL.
Regina Pats: Victor Bartley (D), Ryan DePape (F), Scott Doucet (F), Josh Elder (F), Kirt Hill (F), Michael MacAngus (F), Logan Pyett (D)
Pyett is turning pro but the other six should all be back, which means there's going to be some tough decisions for the new Pats coach to make. I think they keep Bartley, MacAngus, and Doucet, with DePape and Hill for sure finding new teams out there. Elder might too, but he might also be too one-dimensional for an O/A spot in the WHL.
Saskatoon Blades: Colin Joe (D), Garrett Klotz (F), Mike Reich (F)
Klotz is expected to turn pro but both Joe and Reich should be back, with one open spot to fill. They can probably use a top-six forward, especially if they lose Colton Gillies to the NHL. And personally I wouldn't waste an overage spot on Mike Reich's tired act either so if there were a better option out there, don't be surprised if the Blades took it.
Seattle Thunderbirds: Riku Helenius (G), Ashton Hewson (F), Bud Holloway (F), Devon LeBlanc (F), Greg Scott (F)
Helenius, Holloway, and Scott are all gone to the pros, leaving only the recently-acquired Hewson and LeBlanc on the Seattle roster. One more spot available to fill. Probably a defenceman, especially if they lose Thomas Hickey to the NHL.
Spokane Chiefs: Seth Compton (F), Justin Falk (D), Trevor Glass (D), Curtis Kelner (F), Justin McCrae (F)
The Chiefs could lose Falk and maybe McCrae to the pros, but they could also get everyone back too. Two things seem certain to me, and that's that Glass is a keeper and Kelner is an odd man out regardless of how the Falk/McCrae situation goes. Compton's spot probably depends on whether the Chiefs get one or both of Falk/McCrae back. He should have a job somewhere in the WHL for sure though.
Swift Current Broncos: Keegan Dansereau (F), Jesse Dudas (D), Spencer McAvoy (D), Levi Nelson (F), Zack Smith (F), David Stieler (F), Dale Weise (F), Travis Yonkman (G)
Some of the toughest overage decisions in the WHL this fall are in Speedy Creek. Stieler is not coming back as a two-spotter and Nelson is turning pro but the other six guys should all be back and only three of them can stay. I think Yonkman is a lock and probably Dansereau is too, but try and pick one more out of Dudas, Smith, and Weise. Doesn't look good for McAvoy but he, along with the two losers from the Dudas/Smith/Weise trio, should be able to find other spots in the league. Oh, and I'd probably keep Dudas as the third guy, just because they probably need another body on defence more than they need it up front.
Tri-City Americans: Drew Hoff (F), Blair Macaulay (F), Radek Meidl (F), Taylor Procyshen (F), Jason Reese (F)
Meidl isn't expected back; the other four are. I think they have to go with Macauley, Procyshen, and Reese, which makes Hoff the odd man out.
Vancouver Giants: Mike Berube (D), Chris Cloud (F), Spencer Machacek (F), Casey Pierro-Zabotel (F), Michal Repik (F), Craig Schira (D)
Machacek and Repik are gone to the pros, leaving the other four guys to compete for three spots. I think Schira and Pierro-Zabotel are good bets for two of the spots, and Berube's resurrection of his career last year probably gets him the third spot over Cloud.
Posted by Alan Caldwell at 2:26 PM