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CdnSailor
10-18-2011, 04:04 PM
Exceptions would have to be made for gifted athletes

By John MacKinnon, Edmonton Journal October 18, 2011

For all the right reasons, Hockey Canada president Bob Nicholson has suggested the NHL make its annual entry draft a harvest of 19-year-old talents, not 18-year-olds.

There's little doubt that sort of change would rationalize the entire hockey system, permitting midget teams to hold onto their best players for another year, allowing young talents one more year to polish their games in major junior, letting all sorts of European players remain home for another season in their formative years.

Nicholson is serious about plumping for this change, so much so he prepared a nine-page position paper on it and sent it to NHL headquarters.

"For the most part, 18-and 19-year-old players are not close to being ready for the NHL. If the draft goes back a year, it slows down the process at every level," Nicholson told Eric Francis of Sun Media. "Right now, everyone is on a treadmill to get there."

Nicholson studied the draft data for the last six years, which showed 56% of all Canadians drafted in the 2005 draft haven't played one NHL game. Overall, 88% of Canadians drafted at 18 don't play in the NHL before age 20 and only six per cent play in the NHL the year they're drafted.

Nicholson would include an exceptional player clause to permit the truly gifted athlete from being forced to remain in junior when another year could just as easily mean stagnation, not development.

It's a good thing, too, because there is quite a cluster of teenage virtuosos at work in the NHL early this season. Which suggests that if, as a rule, players are better off not being too impatient to depart junior hockey, many who do are clearly ready to play in the NHL, and play well.

Edmonton fans are giddy about 18-year-old Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, of course, and they were even before he scored his first NHL hat-trick on Saturday night in the Oilers' loss to the Vancouver Canucks.

At least, the official scoresheets say it was a three-goal effort for the slick young Nugent-Hopkins. There are those out there in the puckosphere who have been fussing over replays of the third goal like it's hockey's Zapruder film. Taylor Hall, not Nugent-Hopkins, they maintain with stiff-necked seriousness, really scored the goal.

The most grimly self-absorbed of these are muttering dark thoughts about a mythmaking conspiracy at work, from the referee, who pointed to Nugent-Hopkins immediately after he signalled it was a goal, to the Oilers padding the rookie's stats in Game 3 of his first season, to the mainstream media, always happier to write the legend instead of the truth.

Oh my, the Twitter conversation reads like a bad movie script, as if the conspiratorial misfits from Oliver Stone's JFK had just discovered hockey. It's hilarious, in a weird sort of way.

Anyway, as for the age change, the truth is that youngsters in a variety of cities are lighting it up, suggesting, at a minimum, that exceptional player rule would have to be written carefully, should Nicholson's push for an older draft gain momentum in the NHL.

In New Jersey, the buzz has been about Adam Larsson, the allaround defenceman many thought the Oilers should draft instead of Nugent-Hopkins, given their obvious issues on their back end.

Few teams in the NHL are more development conscious than Lou Lamoriello's Devils, but some early chatter from New Jersey suggested Larsson was on the way to establishing himself as the club's top defenceman until a foot injury put him on the sidelines temporarily.

In Colorado, youngsters Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog have helped the Avalanche sprint off to a 5-1 record. When the 18-yearold Landeskog, the No. 2 pick behind Nugent-Hopkins last June, scored his first of the season the other night, he also became the youngest Swede ever to score an NHL goal.

Landeskog played for the Ontario Hockey League's Kitchener Rangers last year, so if the Nicholson rule already were in place, that would work to the benefit of Kitchener, not the Swedish Elite League, where many of Landeskog's countrymen, like the Oilers' Anton Lander, honed their talent before leaving the homeland. Lander's all-around game had been polished for three seasons in the Swedish league before he arrived, seemingly ready to play in all situations, with the Oilers.

The Avalanche have Landeskog playing on a dynamite third line with Ryan O'Reilly and Daniel Winnik, so it's not as if he has been asked to carry the team as a rookie.

For that matter, neither has Nugent-Hopkins, who nonetheless leads his team in scoring early this season, just as he did in the pre-season.

Carolina's Jeff Skinner, a 32-goal, 63-point man last year, when he was named rookie of the year, has resumed speed as a 19-year-old, leading the Hurricanes with six points. In Boston, Tyler Seguin, who showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie, particularly in the playoffs, is causing some buzz this year.

It's far too early, of course, with far too small a sample to draw any over-arching conclusions.

Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini's mantra has been slow, careful development for the organization he leads, from draft day through the minor leagues on up to the NHL.

Selected 22nd overall in the 2008 entry draft, Jordan Eberle played four Western Hockey League seasons with the Regina Pats; had two late-season stints with the Oilers' farm club, then in Springfield, Mass.; and played for Canada at two world junior championships and one world hockey championship before he cracked Edmonton's lineup.

Eberle was not rushed into the NHL and would probably be the poster boy for both Tambellini's organizational philosophy and Nicholson's Canadian hockey system big picture. He is all of 21



Read more: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Bumping+back+draft+proposed/5566472/story.html#ixzz1bAooJNSL

lostsheep
10-18-2011, 08:07 PM
Bottom line is that it would be good for all our hockey leagues. Development is key to the success and growth of hockey, give the players a chance to grow up a bit. I also think there should be NO exception to the rule, as the rule itself would increase the level of play in our junior leagues. Maybe we could get an extra 20yr old on our teams too.

Toswammi
10-18-2011, 09:42 PM
Bottom line is that it would be good for all our hockey leagues. Development is key to the success and growth of hockey, give the players a chance to grow up a bit. I also think there should be NO exception to the rule, as the rule itself would increase the level of play in our junior leagues. Maybe we could get an extra 20yr old on our teams too.

I am in full favor of this happening. It would benefit everyone involved.

canes77
10-19-2011, 04:19 AM
Nicholson studied the draft data for the last six years, which showed 56% of all Canadians drafted in the 2005 draft haven't played one NHL game. Overall, 88% of Canadians drafted at 18 don't play in the NHL before age 20 and only six per cent play in the NHL the year they're drafted.

Starting with that 2nd percentage, why the big deal Bob? That number is no problem at all in my opinion. In terms of WHL, the best WHL'ers every September are those 18-20 year olds who recently attended NHL camp. We all know, and they all know, that they won't make the NHL yet, but the experience being with those pro clubs for a week or two makes them way better players for their WHL team. I'd rather see them play with 60 pros for a couple weeks rather than face no challenges at all in WHL camp.

I know Bob's job is to defend amateur hockey in Canada, but this is silly, these stats won't change AT ALL if the draft age is moved up. It's not the NHL's choice that the CHL only lets 3 overagers and allows 16 year olds to play. The NHL doesn't care about those rules. It's a legal issue, the NHL simply says if you aren't of the age of majority by Day 1 of training camp (Sept 15), you cannot get drafted until next year.

Looking at Bob's first percentage there... whether there is 1 round or 50 rounds in the NHL draft, the same number of guys will still end up playing at least 1 game, and/or having an NHL career. There are 690 active NHLers, with X number of them per birth year spread around 20+ years (ages 18 to 40), the most being between the ages of 25 and 30. If Bob wanted perfect numbers meaning half of the NHL's drafted players made it as regulars, each player would be forced out of the league after 6-7 years due to the huge number of rookies coming up. But no, luckily the NHL is efficient in this aspect.

The NHL's age groups are all efficiently spaced out like a bell curve with a couple exceptional guys at each side of the spectrum (eg. 18 year olds and 40 year olds, such as RNH and Lidstrom).

Bob doesn't seem to understand the math. Say there are, on average, 75 NHL rookies per year (or 2-3 per team). The NHL could go down to a 3 or 4 round draft to make Bob happy (since that stat would then be much less than a 56% failure rate), but in the end, there will still be 75 rookies per year. The NHL could also go to a 50 round draft, 1000+ teens drafted each year! But then what? Nothing would change, the average NHL team would still promote the same 2-3 guys each year to the "Show".

If the NHL did the opposite, nothing would change either... Why not move the draft down to 16, like MLB when they can sign their Latin American prospects. None of thoses guys end up playing AAA or the Majors until the normal 21-22 years of age. The NHL could even move the draft down to a hilarious figure of 12 years old... none of them would obviously make the league then and the league will eventually still end up with the same # of NHLer's per birthyear when those same guys became ready at age 18-22.

I usually agree 100% with Bob, but there is nothing he can do, nor anyone, to improve those numbers.

PS: Toswammi and lostshepp, I wasn't replying to posts specifically... with your posts, I agree 100% that the WHL would be more exciting with a 4th or 5th overager.

lostsheep
10-19-2011, 09:01 AM
Im not 100% sure on what the draft age change would do to impact our league. I know an extra overage player would increase the amount of development some of the younger players would get in thier league. Moving the draft age might only slightly increase the the odds of players returning to this league. those being drafted as a 18yr old would still be drafted as a 19yr old so it might all be a wash. there would be no chance of losing that 18yr old superstar, which for Bob would be a big boost to the CHL, and the tems lucky enough to find that player. Red Deer being in that boat right now. Losing a 18yr old hurts your team building, if it continues we could see teams trading those young players similar to a 4th 20 yr old. Maybe i exagerate a bit but its food for thought.

Toswammi
10-19-2011, 12:58 PM
I have always felt that the draft age should be 19, it won't change the focus of a lot of players, but in the case of 99.99% of all players, they would be better off with another year of junior IMO.

I also wouldn't mind the CHL/NHL/whoever writing a clause into the rule book that says once you are signed, you have to play pro, junior hockey is no longer an option. For the most part this is accurate today, and while this may seem like me being a hypocrite with the last statement, if you are good enough to collect a paycheque, then you are good enough for the AHL/ECHL by default.

Bare Bear
10-19-2011, 11:40 PM
Having an older and more entertaining product on the ice would benefit all teams in the dub. While there are 16 year olds that play like 20's, for the most part they would be better off developing physically and mentally before coming up. Making this a 17-20 year old league with more emphasis on 19-20 year olds would enhance the attendance by hundreds per team. This is a win - win for all concerned. Let's get it done for next year.