What Will It Take 2 Make Playoffs!

[TheRiderman63]

Courtesy of Pats Blog, Some intresting reading and as he brakes it down what it will take.

Lethbridges’ remaining schedule as of February 6, 2011. 18 games to go. Next 7 of 8 will be played on home ice. 7 of final 10 games will be played away from the Enmax Centre.

Home Games (10)

Regina

Prince George

Red Deer (2)

Edmonton (2)

Kamloops

Moose Jaw

Medicine Hat

Kootenay

Away Games (8)

Red Deer

Edmonton (2)

Chilliwack

Kamloops

Kelowna

Calgary

Kootenay


- Currently: 0.86 pts per game gets you into a playoff spot.

- 62 points projected earns you a tiebreaker (possibly # 8 seed outright).

- Lethbridge has 45 points in 54 games played, and based on projections would need 17 points in their last 18 games to earn a tiebreaker.


Since it’s still a few hours away from Super Bowl kickoff, and the lights are dark throughout the Western Hockey League today, I thought it would be interesting to see what the Hurricanes have left in their 2010-11 regular season and see what they might need to do over the final six weeks of the regular season to earn a playoff position in the Eastern Conference. When I look at their schedule I break it into three types of games… First, the ultra tough tests. The big 5 in the Eastern Conference are very good! Saskatoon, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Kootenay and Moose Jaw provide the opposition for the Hurricanes seven times during the stretch drive. Five of those tests will be at home, two versus Red Deer and one more each against Kootenay, Moose Jaw and Medicine Hat. Two times they will play those clubs on the road, once in Red Deer and once in Cranbrook. The next grouping I have created is the games against Western Conference opposition. I lump all of those contests together, because the Canes’ games against the Western Conferences elite are behind them. However, all five games will be played against British Columbia based teams who are in a fight for their own playoff lives. Two will be at the Enmax Centre against Kamloops and Prince George. The other three will be played out West in Kamloops, Chilliwack and finally against Kelwona versus the Rockets who are making a push for the Division title. The remaining six are against the rest of the Eastern Conference clubs who are battling for one of the final three playoff spots. Regina, and Edmonton twice will still make visits to Lethbridge. The Hurricanes will play their three remaining games on the road, in Edmonton twice and finally in Calgary. The Hitmen are a long shot at best to get into the playoffs but have proven since Christmas they can still win games. Just ask Rich Preston whose club lost twice to Calgary last month. Based on mathematical projections through the first three quarters of the regular season, the Hurricanes would need 17 points in their final 18 games to get into a tiebreaker situation. A near .500 record doesn’t appear to be too daunting of a task. However, they will need to be better than they have been over the last quarter of the season. The Hurricanes earned just 13 points in their last 18 games. In fact, Lethbridge has only accumulated 18 points in their last 27 hockey games. So where will the points come from? How do you go about getting those 17 or 18 points? The big key for me will be getting points against the clubs surrounding them in the Eastern Conference chase. I believe you need 5 out of 6 points in the three home games against Edmonton (twice) and Regina. You will need to split in Edmonton and win the game in Calgary giving you nine more points to add to the total. From there, a split against the BC teams should be fine. 5 out of 10 points there puts you up to 14. That would mean, you would need 2 wins in seven games against the ‘Big Dogs’ of the Conference. There’s the 18 points that I figure are out there for the Canes’ to get. There are many ways to reach 18, but that jumps out to me as the most manageable. Should be a fun stretch drive!

- Points needed to make Eastern Conference Playoffs last few years – since three points games (including shoot out losses) were introduced.

2009-10 = 78 points (Moose Jaw)

2008-09 = 67 points (Tiebreaker Prince Albert & Edmonton)

2007-08 = 88 points (Moose Jaw)

2006-07 = 69 points (Swift Current)

2005-06 = 62 points (Swift Current)

[HURRICANE'S ROCK]

A small miracle is all that will get the Canes into the playoffs. I am not trying to stir the pot, but the facts are hard to deny. I reviewed the schedule of the bottom 7 teams in the Eastern Conference and the Hurricanes have the toughest road to the playoffs of these 7 cellar dwellers. Doing some quick math, this is how I believe the East will end up.

#6 EDM ... 72
#7 BRA ... 70
#8 PA ...... 65
-----------------
#9 REG ... 59
#10 LTH .. 57
#11 SC ... 56
#12 CAL ..48

As I stated above, the Canes remaining schedule is probably the most difficult, with Edmonton and PA's being the easiest. The Canes could realistically only win 3 of their remaining games, and probably lose a few more in O.T. and/or a S.O.
The relative strength of the teams schedule is why their should be more separation come the end of the season than their currently is in the standings. For example, Edmonton gets Lethbridge and Calgary 6 more times in their last 15 games. The Oil Kings and Raiders seem to have a favorable schedule and that is why I have them both making the Dance come Spring. Brandon gets to boogey also as they are just playing darn good hockey as of late. I tried to account for 3 point games but if 2 or 3 of these teams have a lot of them, the final standings will be closer than my predictions.
Here is a list of Lethbridge's last 9 games.

Wed Mar 02 .. Lethbridge 0 Chilliwack 0
Fri Mar 04 ... Lethbridge 0 Kamloops 0
Sat Mar 05 ... Lethbridge 0 Kelowna 0
Wed Mar 09 ... Moose Jaw 0 Lethbridge 0
Fri Mar 11 ..... Lethbridge 0 Calgary 0
Sat Mar 12 .... Medicine Hat 0 Lethbridge 0
Tue Mar 15 ... Lethbridge 0 Edmonton 0
Fri Mar 18 ... Kootenay 0 Lethbridge 0
Sat Mar 19 ... Lethbridge 0 Kootenay 0

I hope I am wrong about the Canes playoff chances but they really don't look good right now. We could quite likely lose everyone of our last nine games. The only somewhat easy game in the last nine is at Calgary.

Let's cheer for Swift Current and the Seattle Thunderbirds to win a few more games than it looks like they will. This will give the Canes the #2 and #3 slots in the lottery for the bantam draft, which gives us 2 very good chances at the number one overall pick.

[Stuck in the Penalty Box]

As mentioned by HURRICANES ROCK the schedule does not favour the Hurricanes.

The only thing that is saving the Hurricanes from being in the playoff hunt is the face that Swift Current and PA are just 2 points ahead of them. But since the Hurricanes do not play either club again where are the Canes going to pick up points? The Canes have 15 games left of which 14 are against teams that have more wins, more points, more goals for and fewer goals against. The only team behind the Canes in those categories are the Hitmen who they play once. So I ask where are the Hurricanes going to pick up points? With 7 home games and 8 road games propects for the playoffs do not look good. The Hurricanes also have a tougher schedule. PA plays SC 4 times, Regina 2 and Calgary 2. While SC plays 3 vs Cal and 2 vs Regina.

As of the current standings, the Hurricanes would have the 2nd pick overall and Regina's pick which would be 3rd overall based on their winning percentage.

I hope that Robson and Preston have done their homework with the Bantam Draft this year as they will have two of the top picks in both the first and second rounds.

However, do not be surprised if Preston and Brad Lang (Regina's GM) hook up on a deal that brings Klimchuk (Regina's 1st pick last year) to Lethbridge so he can play with his linemate Merkley. Of course Regina's 1st round pick that the Hurricanes own, would have to go back to Regina.

[canes watcher]

That Klimchuk deal would be a good one. A year older and there isn't a Klimchuk in this draft. Might take two of those top fours to get him, but you've gotta pay for quality. Do they want Hood?

[2speak4all]

All the best picks and the best drafts don't mean squat if they don't get proper coaching. Hood was producing when we got him. It seems if players don't have any self direction, they won't generate wins for the Canes. The ones that have producing, IMO, have self motivation. If nothing else, but to at least garner interest from a scout for NHL invite.

[canes watcher]

Hood was scratched seven of nine games before Lethbridge acquired him from Regina. Good production.

[HURRICANE'S ROCK]

this weekend will keep the Canes in the race for a playoff spot, which will make the remaining games more interesting. If they would of come out of this weekend with 0 points they would pretty much be out of the playoff race. Good on the kids for their efforts against Edmonton and Red Deer.
I could not help but notice how few penalties the Canes took in these 2 games. They only allowed 2 PP in both games. Probably not a coincidence that they got 3 out 4 points with so few penalties. The Hurricanes discipline this year has cost them a lot of games.

[JMoney1988]

Hey, just coming onto tell you, good job on beating red deer, us fans in saskatoon thank you, you guys also helped yourself get closer to a playoff spot, who knows if you happen to make the playoffs, we might play each other and also the red deer peeps on the red deer blog are complaining that it was all injuries or they just lost that could be it, anyway long story short, congrats on picking up an important 2 points and helping us in the process.

[Bocephus]

If the Canes continue what they did on Monday they can make the playoffs. That was the first time I seen them play for a win in the third. For a few minutes they lost focus and were more interested in yapping and taking penalties but then they clued in and realized the win was far more important than arguing calls and retaliating. Hopefully this trend continues tonight against the Blazers.
One of the best games of the year was the previous home game against Kamloops. Let's have another.

[TheRiderman63]

Just got home from giving blood here in lethbridge, they have Canes stuff everywhere also put my name for the autographed jersey. And for giving blood there, there giving a hole bunch of FREE Canes Calenders to donaters, I got like 5