2nd Half

[Wildeyes]

It started with a huge win tonight over speedy creek tonight pretty decent game today. Knutzen won it with the shoot out. Cole did great in net today. Good win hopefully we can pull out a couple of wins against the blades this weekend.

[The Wheatiemaniac]

It started with a huge win tonight over speedy creek tonight pretty decent game today. Knutzen won it with the shoot out. Cole did great in net today. Good win hopefully we can pull out a couple of wins against the blades this weekend.

So, you guys are tied for last place and the trade deadline is two and a half weeks away. Vanscourt has been unloaded. I'm guessing you are sellers. Has their been any rumblings about a huge package for Mark McNeill. How likely or unlikely does anyone see him being moved on or before Jan. 10? We have a barrage of hot prospects we could afford to package up. He or Vause from S.C. would look pretty good between Stone and Ferland. I know he'd be quite expensive considering he's only 18 this year. But if there was half a chance to get him, somebody will. Any thoughts?

[lordstanley]

They would be dumb not to rebuild this year same goes for Lethbridge and Swift Current

[Raider Believer]

Assuming that the current 8th and 7th place teams in our conference only play .500 hockey from here till the end of the season ... it would place a playoff positon at somewhere around 78 points. This also assumes that none of the currently positioned non playoff teams catch fire .... then the Raiders will need to win something like 23 or 24 games of their next 31 games. Not impossible but very, very difficult. It means playing .770 hockey and hoping that teams like Red Deer don't keep pace. Does anyone believe in miracles?

I think Bruno has a real problem. He promised everyone that we would be contending after 5 years (his 5 year plan). This is his 5th season. If he becomes a seller now i.e. sells off Maylan, Corbin and Tochkin, he will receive prospects and picks. It will be tough for them to win for him now, or even next year. Winther, Danyluk, McVeigh et al are good players but not studs like McNeil. And there is no guarantee that McNeil won't stick with Hawks next season, the salary cap issues in Chicago might be a window of opportunity for him to stick. So maybe the 5 year plan will become a 9 year plan? Additionally, although I like the two most recent deals, I'm a little concerned about our goalkeeping now. Holewenko has always been a little streaky, a good technical and positonal keeper but suspect in close and maybe lacking a little in athleticism IMO. And please don't jump all over the place with this assessment ... I've watched him in every place he's played, excepting the couple of games in Chilliwack, including the Centennials in Merritt, Westside and minor hockey tournaments where he backstopped for Penticton where another good '93 keeper hails from .... Darren Hogg.

[Wapitikev]

Ok, I agree not yo jump on you.

Assuming that the current 8th and 7th place teams in our conference only play .500 hockey from here till the end of the season ... it would place a playoff positon at somewhere around 78 points. This also assumes that none of the currently positioned non playoff teams catch fire .... then the Raiders will need to win something like 23 or 24 games of their next 31 games. Not impossible but very, very difficult. It means playing .770 hockey and hoping that teams like Red Deer don't keep pace. Does anyone believe in miracles?

I don't think the boys will play .770 hockey the rest of the way, either...probably closer to .500, particularly without Herrod. The last two games against Brandon this weekend could set the tone for the rest of the season.

But, I don't necessarily think that 78 points is the measure of success or failure for this season. Nor is making the playoffs.

In the last 15 years The Raiders have finished with less than 67 points 8 times.

Since his first bantam draft as GM the team has never finished the season with less than 67 points.

That means that, in the 12 seasons prior to 2008/2009 the Raiders finished the season with less points than the worst full-season under Mr C. as GM...only 1/3 of the time.

So pre Bruno GM 1/3 of the time at 67 or better, post Bruno GM 100% of the time.

So Mr. C is the most consistent winner (as GM) in Prince Albert, in 15 years.

True 67 points may not make the playoffs this year but it was good enough to tie for the playoffs 3 years ago and to make the playoffs last year.

So 18 wins out of 31 is .580...much easier than .770

Lastly, and I've said this in the past, when Bruno took over as GM, except for Herrod, the cupboard was bare...which means you can trade anyone you want to make the team better.

Next year, your draft picks are only 16 (assuming they play at all), so you can still trade almost anyone...except maybe a guy or two.

Next year, you have some 17 y-olds and a maybe a couple of 16 y-olds, which still allows for a large number of bodies to move for trades.

However, this year is the crunch year...without selling your quality 18, 17, and 16 y-old players there is a far more limited pool of players to trade in order to get better...3-20s and a few 19s.

This is the year that was going to be the toughest out of any multi-year plan, even before Parker bailed.

Next year you will have all McNeil (since he has only a slim chance to make the Hawks) Ruop, Hlinka, Holowenko, etc. as 19 y-olds, plus the quality 18s (this year's 17s) and 17s (this year's 16s) and then any 16s that can play like Gardiner and Vanstone.

In other words...you should not have to be trader-cliff to have a team full of skilled players...next year. This will be the first time this has occurred in PA in almost a decade.

I think Bruno has a real problem. He promised everyone that we would be contending after 5 years (his 5 year plan). This is his 5th season.

So Bruno made this promise as head coach...even though he couldn't control drafting and trades? Please point me at your source for that claim.

As GM, Mr. C would have been expected to pitch a 5-year plan. That plan would be finishing its 4th year in a few weeks.

See above for how much better the team (that he has built as GM) will be in the 5th year since he took over as GM.

If he becomes a seller now i.e. sells off Maylan, Corbin and Tochkin, he will receive prospects and picks. It will be tough for them to win for him now, or even next year. Winther, Danyluk, McVeigh et al are good players but not studs like McNeil.

We can agree to disagree.

And there is no guarantee that McNeil won't stick with Hawks next season, the salary cap issues in Chicago might be a window of opportunity for him to stick.

Or more likely than that, he won't...

So maybe the 5 year plan will become a 9 year plan?

You're just being silly now. Under your math a 6-year plan is all that's necessary to get us to next year...5 years since he became GM.

Additionally, although I like the two most recent deals, I'm a little concerned about our goalkeeping now. Holewenko has always been a little streaky, a good technical and positonal keeper but suspect in close and maybe lacking a little in athleticism IMO. And please don't jump all over the place with this assessment ... I've watched him in every place he's played, excepting the couple of games in Chilliwack, including the Centennials in Merritt, Westside and minor hockey tournaments where he backstopped for Penticton where another good '93 keeper hails from .... Darren Hogg.

Not jumping on you here.

Cole is streaky and is still developing...he needs to stay mentally tough and keep developing his skills in order to be the #1 out of camp next year.

Or we could trade for someone more developed, already.

So, to sum up:

-Winningest GM in PA in 15 years.
-2011-2012 = Lowest number of players available to trade (without mortgaging the future) since he started as GM.
-2012-2013 = Most stocked with talent team in PA in a decade...and getting better with every trade.

Either way, if the Raiders lose either of the two games to Brandon on Friday and Saturday, then even 67 points will be hard to achieve and the writing will be on the wall...for this year.

-Wapitikev

[Sttop]

No offence Waptikev I like your optimisim but that was the worst arguement I have ever read. Bruno pubicly said it was a 5 year plan. If you know you are not making the playoffs and you can get assets for guys that are gone next year like Maylan and Tochkin you have to do it to improve future years. Maybe you forgot when a past gm didnt trade Chipchura and Byers and set us back years. And to add to that, the more we win and just miss the playoffs by the worse our draft position gets. I say sell it all and look for 1st overall.

[Wapitikev]

No offence Waptikev I like your optimisim but that was the worst arguement I have ever read. Bruno pubicly said it was a 5 year plan.

I'm sorry you don't accept the facts in my argument.

More importantly, I'm not saying Mr. Campese did NOT say that he had a 5-year plan.

I'm saying that you have the dates wrong.

A coach cannot draft. A coach cannot trade for better players. Why would a coach have a 5-year plan for rebuilding the team? It makes no sense.

That's a GM's job and he has only been GM for 4 years

So unless you can show me a dated statement that he said he had a 5-year development plan to overhaul the team, in the summer of 2007, when he took over as head-coach, then I'm saying your math is wrong.

If you know you are not making the playoffs and you can get assets for guys that are gone next year like Maylan and Tochkin you have to do it to improve future years.

I believe I said that was a no-brainer on another thread yesterday.

I'm not disagreeing with you. Selling off 20 y-old players for assets is already underway as evidenced in the most recent trade.

Maybe you forgot when a past gm didnt trade Chipchura and Byers and set us back years.

Based on Mr. Campese's track record as GM, I think it is safe to assume that, intelligence-wise, he is a couple of evolutionary steps up the ladder from the GM who did that.

But not trading them for assets only screws up one draft-year...the Raider GM(s) have been dismal at drafting for more than a decade before McNeil was drafted. And don't even get me started on trades prior to 2008.

Not selling assets in 2005 was one of the least of their sins.

And to add to that, the more we win and just miss the playoffs by the worse our draft position gets. I say sell it all and look for 1st overall.

Ok, lets say we tank for 1st on purpose...you know as well as I do that everyone who has their 5-year math wrong, and their dog, would be calling for the GM to be fired.

I'm pretty sure that Brian Burke refused to tank to make the leafs better and Mr. Campese does not strike me as the kind of weasel who would, either.

-Wapitikev

[The Wheatiemaniac]

I'm sorry you don't accept the facts in my argument.

More importantly, I'm not saying Mr. Campese did NOT say that he had a 5-year plan.

I'm saying that you have the dates wrong.

A coach cannot draft. A coach cannot trade for better players. Why would a coach have a 5-year plan for rebuilding the team? It makes no sense.

That's a GM's job and he has only been GM for 4 years

So unless you can show me a dated statement that he said he had a 5-year development plan to overhaul the team, in the summer of 2007, when he took over as head-coach, then I'm saying your math is wrong.



I believe I said that was a no-brainer on another thread yesterday.

I'm not disagreeing with you. Selling off 20 y-old players for assets is already underway as evidenced in the most recent trade.



Based on Mr. Campese's track record as GM, I think it is safe to assume that, intelligence-wise, he is a couple of evolutionary steps up the ladder from the GM who did that.

But not trading them for assets only screws up one draft-year...the Raider GM(s) have been dismal at drafting for more than a decade before McNeil was drafted. And don't even get me started on trades prior to 2008.

Not selling assets in 2005 was one of the least of their sins.



Ok, lets say we tank for 1st on purpose...you know as well as I do that everyone who has their 5-year math wrong, and their dog, would be calling for the GM to be fired.

I'm pretty sure that Brian Burke refused to tank to make the leafs better and Mr. Campese does not strike me as the kind of weasel who would, either.

-Wapitikev

For last place, I don't think you could possibly catch Everett if you tried. I think they will even unload more than you guys. From there, the first pick will be all theirs.

[XCHEKR]

I'm scratching my head trying to figure out how many ways or times you can put this out there and no one has got the point!!! Stop & Read > that is all you have to do! Hope to see some good games coming up! I'm sure they are missing Mr. Herrod!

[chalk_one_up]

Ok, I agree not yo jump on you.



I don't think the boys will play .770 hockey the rest of the way, either...probably closer to .500, particularly without Herrod. The last two games against Brandon this weekend could set the tone for the rest of the season.

But, I don't necessarily think that 78 points is the measure of success or failure for this season. Nor is making the playoffs.

In the last 15 years The Raiders have finished with less than 67 points 8 times.

Since his first bantam draft as GM the team has never finished the season with less than 67 points.

That means that, in the 12 seasons prior to 2008/2009 the Raiders finished the season with less points than the worst full-season under Mr C. as GM...only 1/3 of the time.

So pre Bruno GM 1/3 of the time at 67 or better, post Bruno GM 100% of the time.

So Mr. C is the most consistent winner (as GM) in Prince Albert, in 15 years.

True 67 points may not make the playoffs this year but it was good enough to tie for the playoffs 3 years ago and to make the playoffs last year.

So 18 wins out of 31 is .580...much easier than .770

Lastly, and I've said this in the past, when Bruno took over as GM, except for Herrod, the cupboard was bare...which means you can trade anyone you want to make the team better.

Next year, your draft picks are only 16 (assuming they play at all), so you can still trade almost anyone...except maybe a guy or two.

Next year, you have some 17 y-olds and a maybe a couple of 16 y-olds, which still allows for a large number of bodies to move for trades.

However, this year is the crunch year...without selling your quality 18, 17, and 16 y-old players there is a far more limited pool of players to trade in order to get better...3-20s and a few 19s.

This is the year that was going to be the toughest out of any multi-year plan, even before Parker bailed.

Next year you will have all McNeil (since he has only a slim chance to make the Hawks) Ruop, Hlinka, Holowenko, etc. as 19 y-olds, plus the quality 18s (this year's 17s) and 17s (this year's 16s) and then any 16s that can play like Gardiner and Vanstone.

In other words...you should not have to be trader-cliff to have a team full of skilled players...next year. This will be the first time this has occurred in PA in almost a decade.



So Bruno made this promise as head coach...even though he couldn't control drafting and trades? Please point me at your source for that claim.

As GM, Mr. C would have been expected to pitch a 5-year plan. That plan would be finishing its 4th year in a few weeks.

See above for how much better the team (that he has built as GM) will be in the 5th year since he took over as GM.



We can agree to disagree.



Or more likely than that, he won't...



You're just being silly now. Under your math a 6-year plan is all that's necessary to get us to next year...5 years since he became GM.



Not jumping on you here.

Cole is streaky and is still developing...he needs to stay mentally tough and keep developing his skills in order to be the #1 out of camp next year.

Or we could trade for someone more developed, already.

So, to sum up:

-Winningest GM in PA in 15 years.
-2011-2012 = Lowest number of players available to trade (without mortgaging the future) since he started as GM.
-2012-2013 = Most stocked with talent team in PA in a decade...and getting better with every trade.

Either way, if the Raiders lose either of the two games to Brandon on Friday and Saturday, then even 67 points will be hard to achieve and the writing will be on the wall...for this year.

-Wapitikev

Yeah that wasn't obsessive and over-the-top at all