News Flash: Management has learned nothing from the past several years of futility

[scrunt]

When I read these words on my tablet screen a couple of days ago I just shook my head and sighed:

“Scott Bonner, Vancouver’s outgoing general manager, said Sunday that he’d like to see the team buy rather than sell.”

That is a quote from Steve Ewen’s December 27 article in the Province, here: http://www.theprovince.com/sports/ewen+surging+giants+look+more+like+buyers+after+an other/11616131/story.html

“Owner Ron Toigo has said that Bonner is in charge for the time being.”

I just can’t believe the continued delusion of this team’s management. The glimpse of hope I had when I heard that Bonner was leaving has long since been replaced with a depressing realization that nothing has changed. Bonner is still in place. The Giants management still believe they can make the playoffs. They still fail to realize that trading young players and draft picks for older players is just like financing your lifestyle with credit cards.

Let’s look at this.

Chances of making the 2016 playoffs? Steve Ewen: “Vancouver (13-19-3-2) moved to within two points of the Portland Winterhawks (16-16-1-0) for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference prior to Portland’s game Sunday night with the Tri-City Americans… Portland had four games in hand on Vancouver going into that Tri-City game”

Reality: The Giants still have the worst winning percentage in the Western Conference. All teams the Giants are chasing for a wildcard playoff spot have games in hand and have .500 or better records over their past 10 games. The only team close to the Giants in the conference standings (Tri-City) is not in the same division, so the only way they make the playoffs is with a wildcard. Let’s assume the three teams ahead of the Giants earn .500 for their games in hand. As of December 28:

• Giants: 37 games, 31 points
• Portland: 34 games, 35 points = 38 points if they earn 3 points from their 3 games in hand
• Kamloops: 34 games, 38 points = 41 points…
• Spokane: 35 games, 40 points = 42 points

So the Giants are effectively 7 points back of the Winterhawks, and 10 points back of their next closest target.
But the Giants are on a roll, right? Yes indeed. In their last 10 games, they have earned 13 points. But Portland has earned 11 points in their last 10 games. So has Kamloops. So has Spokane. At this pace, the Giants need 35 games to catch Portland, 40 to move ahead of them (to avoid a tiebreaker). The Giants have 35 games left.

So maybe the Giants have a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs. And about a 1% chance of winning a playoff game. And making the playoffs just moves the team farther from the top of the draft order.

So what would Bonner et al need to do to get there? If the team is going to be a buyer, then prospects and/or draft picks are going the other way. All that does is weaken the team for next year or the years after. We need to be bolstering the team for next year, not subtracting from it. Sure, we could get an overager for cheap (maybe), but that won’t get us far.

So, what about the future? Well, I would argue that our best six skaters this year have been Benson, Ronning, Cox, Lang, Popoff, and Thomas. Four of those six will be gone next year (assuming Thomas and Lang move up to the AHL, an assumption that would be more likely to be realized if the Giants actually make the playoffs). Meanwhile, the Hitmen will still have Stukel next season (19 goals in 25 games since the trade!), assuming he stays healthy.

There is no way this team should be even thinking about being a buyer. At a minimum the team should trade overagers Cox and Popoff – both would have excellent value to a contender. I bet Osipov would get the Giants a top 16 year old player and/or a first round pick at least: his size and rugged stay at home game would be hugely attractive to a team looking to make a long playoff run. Maybe replace Osipov with a cheap 20 year old defenceman to mentor the younger D-men for the rest of the year. Osipov would be a two-spotter next season anyway, so there is a cost to keeping him, even assuming he would come back as an overager.

So even with Bonner “gone,” it is the same old same old. What a joke.

[Priceisright]

Wow Stukel has 19! Yikes

[Lucic]

While I agree with most of what you are saying the reality is the Giants can very likely make the playoffs. They are better than a few of the teams ahead of them and only a few points behind. The team finally seems to be clicking and they are getting solid goaltending. Now does that mean I believe they should go out and be buyers at the deadline? No. But it's understandable why they are thinking that way for a number of reasons. I don't think the conference is really strong this year. Sure, Kelowna is probably the team to beat but I think every other team is beatable. The Giants have had success against Everett and Victoria and these upcoming games against Prince George will be a good test.

A few weeks ago I would've said trade Cox, Popoff and get whatever you can for them. But with the team getting healthy now and players starting to gel and perform I would reconsider. That doesn't mean be aggressive and buy, but if you can add another 20 year old (like Waltz, for example, or a forward with size) without giving up a lot, go for it. Might as well fill that open overage spot. There are areas of need on this team. Within reason I don't see why they shouldn't try and fill those holes as long as they continue to play well.

[scrunt]

The problem is that this is the same situation the team has been in for the last 3+ years... On the outside looking in, and hoping for a couple of home playoff dates at best. After the trade deadline, we will still have several valuable players on the roster that will be lost for nothing after the end of season, and nothing will have been added for the future.

Adam Morrison carried the team in 2011-12 and gave hope for the playoffs (lost four straight to Spokane after winning the first two games), then he was gone the next season with no replacement nurtured for the following season. The team missed the playoffs the following year.

Dalton Thrower carried the team for a season in 2013-14 and gave them hope for the playoffs (they went out in four straight, being outscored 19-7), then was gone the next season and left a gaping hole in the lineup. The team missed the playoffs the following season.

Imagine if we had traded Geertsen at the deadline last year for a top 16 year old prospect (a realistic expectation, I would think, given what he would have added to a playoff contender)... that would have improved the team this year and next. Same with Thrower the year before. That might have added a player to complement Benson.

So far my hopes for next year lie in Benson, Kubic and Ronning. If we can pick up some decent 16-17-18 year olds at the deadline to complement them next year (in exchange for 19-20 year olds who will be gone anyway), I can see next season being an improvement over this one. Otherwise, I see exactly the same thing happening.

This season is a lost cause. By all means push for the playoffs, but this team needs to be a lot better next year, not a little bit better for the rest of this year.

[Lucic]

The problem is that this is the same situation the team has been in for the last 3+ years... On the outside looking in, and hoping for a couple of home playoff dates at best. After the trade deadline, we will still have several valuable players on the roster that will be lost for nothing after the end of season, and nothing will have been added for the future.

I'm not so sure I agree with this statement. This team is better than the previous teams the past 3 years. Especially offensively. Yes there are certainly holes and flaws but they haven't had this much firepower in a while. I'm also not sure what they could potentially get for Cox or Popoff (assuming these are the valuable players you are talking about). A few picks maybe? Hard to say. I get the feeling they wouldn't fetch as much in return as some think. Red Deer got DeBrusk from Swift Current for little to nothing, IMO. Way less than I expected. Makes me think it isn't a sellers market. Partly because there aren't a lot of really great teams. Many mediocre teams are right in the playoff mix.

Adam Morrison carried the team in 2011-12 and gave hope for the playoffs (lost four straight to Spokane after winning the first two games), then he was gone the next season with no replacement nurtured for the following season. The team missed the playoffs the following year.

Dalton Thrower carried the team for a season in 2013-14 and gave them hope for the playoffs (they went out in four straight, being outscored 19-7), then was gone the next season and left a gaping hole in the lineup. The team missed the playoffs the following season.

Imagine if we had traded Geertsen at the deadline last year for a top 16 year old prospect (a realistic expectation, I would think, given what he would have added to a playoff contender)... that would have improved the team this year and next. Same with Thrower the year before. That might have added a player to complement Benson.

I understand what you are saying but Morrison and Thrower were by far the best acquisitions the Giants made those seasons. I think it's hard to suggest they should have moved either player. Both were huge contributors to the team and largely responsible for them making the playoffs. If your suggestion is they should have moved both guys I don't agree at all. When you are going to make the playoffs the last thing you are going to do is trade your best asset. That defeats the purpose. As for Geertsen I agree I would have moved him too. But from what I heard it wasn't that simple. Sometimes what a player wants trumps what is best for the team long term. It sometimes sucks but it's understandable.

So far my hopes for next year lie in Benson, Kubic and Ronning. If we can pick up some decent 16-17-18 year olds at the deadline to complement them next year (in exchange for 19-20 year olds who will be gone anyway), I can see next season being an improvement over this one. Otherwise, I see exactly the same thing happening.

If the Giants could get 17 or 18 year old's with upside for their older players I would be all for that. But I don't think that is likely. It's probably bantam picks. And I'm not interested in that. The Giants have had a ton of those and have a lot of young players on the roster and in the system.

scruntThis season is a lost cause. By all means push for the playoffs, but this team needs to be a lot better next year, not a little bit better for the rest of this year.

I don't think this is a lost season. I did a few weeks ago. But Kubic has been really good (Wapple getting injured is probably the best thing to happen for this team) and the team has looked a lot better as a whole. Again I don't have unrealistic expectations. I'm not claiming this is a great team or a contender or anything like that. But I do think they can easily climb into the playoff picture. Many of the teams ahead of them aren't very good and won't be getting better. The Giants are mostly healthy now with Foster back and if Kubic continues to play well I don't see any reason they won't make the playoffs. If they can add another 20 year old without giving up much (a defenseman or a bigger forward) they'll have a good chance of making the playoffs. The experience will be very good for the younger players. Much better than packing it in and selling off all the older players. Especially when the conference isn't very good. But if the team is going to stand pat and not add a piece or two I won't be very happy. If you are going to try and make the playoffs at least equip your team with pieces to give yourself a better shot. Right now there are holes that need filling and I don't believe those pieces will cost an arm and a leg to acquire. I'm talking about some depth and stability. Not elite level talent.

[Giantsfan]

How could they have traded Thrower when he was done for the season just after Xmas?

[scrunt]

How could they have traded Thrower when he was done for the season just after Xmas?

Interesting hypothesis... Anything constructive to add...?

[Giantsfan]

Imagine if we had traded Geertsen at the deadline last year for a top 16 year old prospect (a realistic expectation, I would think, given what he would have added to a playoff contender)... that would have improved the team this year and next. Same with Thrower the year before. That might have added a player to complement Benson.

They asked Geertsen if he wanted to be traded at the deadline & he wanted to stay here & help the team get into the playoffs, unfortunately they fell short.

[MeszarosFan]

They asked Geertsen if he wanted to be traded at the deadline & he wanted to stay here & help the team get into the playoffs, unfortunately they fell short.

So they put the players desires ahead of the teams needs? If they keep doing that this team will be going nowhere fast. Which sounds exactly like what's been happening for the past four years.

[Giantsfan]

You act as though you are surprised. This isn't new, this is something they've done, maybe since the start of the teams inception. They were doing it during the good times & the bad times. I believe most teams do it, ask a veteran who won't be back if they would like a chance to either, go to an contender or in Henry's case, play closer to home. Geertsen thought the Giants had a chance of going somewhere, so he stayed even though they could have traded him.