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Thread: Cale Fleury in... Smart, Muir and a 2nd out

  1. #21

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    I agree with chopper. The Pats need to go "all in" because they said they would. When the Pats made their presentation bid they made a promise that they would represent the WHL and the CHL in a positive light. John Paddock publicly stated that the plan was to win the last game this year and to make the playoffs next year. There are a lot of Pats fans who have never seen the Pats win the WHL or Memorial Cup Championships. Going "all in" doesn't mean that the two objectives of winning this year and making the playoffs next year are mutually exclusive, as chopper explained. I think the Pats have a strong enough organization to put their best foot forward this year and remain relatively competitive in the future, even though they clearly will not be able to compete for a WHL title over the next couple/few years if they make certain sacrifices this year.

    "All in" does not mean spending recklessly on "big names" because the GM doesn't know any better. "All in" means the GM doing his homework, identifying which specific pieces (players) he needs, then going after them. It does not mean only going after players that require using first round draft picks. For example, last year the Pats acquired Dawson Leedahl from the Everett Silvertips and did not pay a kings ransom lot for him. Leedahl's offensive production skyrocketed on the Pats. John Paddock needs to identify specific players that he feels he can get a lot more production out of and not just trade for players that have the best stats in the regular season. Of course, some players the Pats will want to acquire will be the ones that are producing already, but being able to get more production out of a player than another coach could be the difference between winning and losing Championships. It's what makes certain coaches great. Moose Jaw just acquired Barrett Sheen for a 5th round draft pick. There's valuable players out there that will not cost the Pats first round draft picks.

    The Pats have 3 first round draft picks over the next 4 years. The Pats were able to get Cale Fleury without using a first round draft pick. I think it was a fair trade in that respect. As good as Fleury is, he didn't suit up for team WHL and won't play on the World Junior team this year. I believe that first round draft picks should only be spent on players that are not only impact players, but exceptional players. For instance, players like Carter Hart, Nolan Patrick, Jake Bean, Kale Clague, Dillon Dube, Tyler Steenbergen etc. So if the Pats do decide to trade one or all three of those draft picks, I expect them to make them count.

    The Pats still need to improve in all areas. In addition to acquiring skill, size and toughness, I hope they also improve team speed as well. They're going to need skill, size and toughness to play against the big strong teams, but speed is something that is useful against all opponents, especially against teams that have great team speed. Dillon Dube, Ty Lewis, Lane Zablocki and Riley Woods are all guys that are really good / great to excellent skaters. There's others out there as well.

    The Pats absolutely have to go for it all this year because they said they would. There's no point in hosting the 100th Memorial Cup only to participate. The Pats need to pull all of the stops and take a serious run at the WHL and Memorial Cup Championships this year. Throwing in the towel because Moose Jaw and Swift Current are better than the Pats right now or because you're worried that the Pats won't be able to compete at all for a few years is a loser mentality, which I do not identify with. The Pats tried in 2001 and lost. The Pats arguably have a better hockey mind now and we will see how this year goes. Hopefully much better than in 2001. Who knows when the Pats will ever get this chance again, so I say they need to go all in and win this thing on home ice.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by chopper View Post
    We had a Memorial Cup here in 2001 and 17 years later we find ourselves fortunate enough to be in another as "Hosts" again. It will in all likelihood take another 20 years give or take, before we ever get to another outside of winning our way. We haven't been too good at winning WHL championships and earning our way there. I think we would be cheating the fan base if we didn't go "all in" to get the players and needs to win this tournament. If it means trading three of our upcoming 1st round picks to do so, then so be it (I will expand more in this post). Going all in doesn't necessarily mean all the biggest name guys out there. It means getting the right talent and some good fits for the team. It means getting getting a couple more good forwards, a couple more d-men if needed, and more goaltending if deemed required. Some people are fine with just being OK with the hope that it will allow us to be reasonably successful next season and beyond. That's total loser mentality IMO. Because ("iF NOT NOW WHEN IT'S IN YOUR BACKYARD, THEN WHEN?). When are we going to be good enough to win a WHL title and earn our way back to the Memorial Cup. We couldn't do it last year, so when will it be? When will it be the right time to trade off prospects when you are guaranteed a spot in the big show?



    Having 1st round picks and all that stuff doesn't mean all that much. You don't lose after a Memorial Cup simply because you don't have 1st round picks. It doesn't help but it's really not the reason. There are many case studies but I will show how you can win regardless of the situation if you have a good organization with a superior manager and coach. In 2012-13 The WHL took away the first 5 of Portland's draft picks. They the forfeited their 1st round picks for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017. They have made a couple 1st round selections by trading off other assets they had. The most notable is Cody Glass, who was taken closer to middle of the draft. Even after being hit with these crippling sanctions, the Winterhawks have barely missed a stride. Since the league imposed the sanctions they have averaged about 45 wins per season, only once less than 40 wins,
    won a WHL Championship, WHL Finalists, Memorial Cup finalists etc. Those sanctions would have destroyed most teams but Portland keeps on ticking and will likely win close 45-50 games this year. The Reason: They have elite management and coaching. The reason the Pats faded after 2001 and Saskatoon faded is because they didn't have elite people in those positions. Take a look at how Portland survived after losing all those picks.

    2010–11 72 50 19 0 3 303 227 103 1st U.S. Lost final
    2011–12 72 49 19 3 1 328 229 102 2nd U.S. Lost final
    2012–13 72 57 12 1 2 334 169 117 1st U.S. Won championship; Lost Memorial Cup final
    2013–14 72 54 13 2 3 338 207 113 1st U.S. Lost final
    2014–15 72 43 23 2 4 287 237 92 2nd U.S. Lost Western Conference final
    2015–16 72 34 31 6 1 228 227 75 3rd U.S. Lost Western Conference quarter-final
    2016–17 72 40 28 1 3 278 256 84 4th U.S. Lost Western Conference semi-final

    The point to this all is that even if the Pats move two or three 1st round picks, it's not a death sentence. With great scouting (which we have), astute drafts, trades, and looking outside the box for players and yes sometimes taking a flyer; we can still prosper and ice a very good team. If Portland was able to, so can we do it. All one has to do is look at any years 1st round draft and look two years later to see how many "gems" have come out of it. The number is quite small. Lots of teams had a lot of top picks but they still find themselves usually looking in from outside.

    Right now:

    Bradley 1.24 ppg
    Steel 1 .19 ppg
    Oksanen 1.15 ppg
    Mahura 1.06 ppg
    Davidson .81 ppg

    Leschyshyn, Henry, and Wagner(?) will all get back to the 1+ ppg status very soon. That could potentially be 7 players playing at a rate of 1+ ppg, and maybe 8. Then if we add a couple good forwards that will be 9 or 10. That's the kind of depth that most teams in the league won't be able to match. Add another d-man or two and all of a sudden you are much deeper there. Playoffs are about depth and Paddock learned that last year. If the deals are there and they make sense I say "get er done". Another Left winger for Steel, and another right winger. Couple depth d-men, Goaltending.??? I don't know what they will do there. The one component I hope they pay heed to is some size and toughness when making trades. We some grit and attitude this year in the playoffs. The first round will be war.

    If I had a vote I would vote all in. Can't worry about what might happen down the road. This is Junior Hockey and anything can happen. If you have good people running it like they do in Portland, you can still be competitive and in fact maybe even excel.
    Superb post Chopper. Couldn’t agree more with everything. I would add this, those players that you pick up to bolster the roster must fit the chemistry Anne improve
    the work ethic of the team. Paddock comments all the time about that and fans recognize that as well.
    There was a reason players in the past where traded and players acquired IMO. I think Fleury is one of those types. Skill needs to be increased speed as well but chemistry is just as important. Hopefully with Wagner’s return, if that happens, at least one of those components is filled as well, along with that i am wondering if they are waiting to see how leschychyn and Henry come along after there injuries before pulling the pin on making some moves in the forward ranks. My bet is moves in the forward positions may happen in early December, due to those question marks. The other major one is to land Hart. Said it before and will again, i don’t mind Brown but it’s twofold, you open up a 20 year old spot while adding a true game changer. Your not getting rid of Paddock as he is the future, so the problem is can you get anything in return for brown. That will command a big price. Everett does need prospects though, an imo would want a first at least and at least one very high quality prospect. That may happen soon.

  3. #23

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    -Riley woods was traded for a reason. Even if his upside was reached, which was unlikely to happen here by the way, he isnt going to be a front liner on a contending team. Just like smart. They have holes in their games despite their obvious gift with the puck. They're below average players without the puck.

    -I'd like to see us land Hart too. Brown is simply too hot and cold, and opening a 20 year old spot will go along way to shaping our roster. My only worry isn't the price, which would be probably 2/3rds or even 4/5ths of the mahura price, but its how he played under pressure last year in both world juniors and in the playoffs. Can he overcome his previous stumbles? Any trade with Hart should have a conditions on the pick contingent on whl playoff progress, especially in a tight east division.

    -we have to build up our bottom 6 too. Thats how swift did well last playoffs. Experienced bottom 6 veterans. King wasn't going to be that guy...but our pal Sean Richards could be(a potential throw in on a Hart deal). Look at any team with an abundance of bigger 98s as places to look. We need our own Arthur miller or Connor chaulk.

    -We need a team with defined roles instead of everybody wanting to be the point producing star. Sloboshan isn't a flashy front liner but he knows his role. Zablocki probably thought of himself as the 1st line winger last year, and he isn't even that this year...though he's a good piece if he can take it easy with the slashing penalties.

    I'd like to see some veteran insurance on the backend. Two or three more 19s in the forward group, and one big fish.

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some_Arrogant_Jerk View Post
    -Riley woods was traded for a reason. Even if his upside was reached, which was unlikely to happen here by the way, he isnt going to be a front liner on a contending team. Just like smart. They have holes in their games despite their obvious gift with the puck. They're below average players without the puck.

    -I'd like to see us land Hart too. Brown is simply too hot and cold, and opening a 20 year old spot will go along way to shaping our roster. My only worry isn't the price, which would be probably 2/3rds or even 4/5ths of the mahura price, but its how he played under pressure last year in both world juniors and in the playoffs. Can he overcome his previous stumbles? Any trade with Hart should have a conditions on the pick contingent on whl playoff progress, especially in a tight east division.

    -we have to build up our bottom 6 too. Thats how swift did well last playoffs. Experienced bottom 6 veterans. King wasn't going to be that guy...but our pal Sean Richards could be(a potential throw in on a Hart deal). Look at any team with an abundance of bigger 98s as places to look. We need our own Arthur miller or Connor chaulk.

    -We need a team with defined roles instead of everybody wanting to be the point producing star. Sloboshan isn't a flashy front liner but he knows his role. Zablocki probably thought of himself as the 1st line winger last year, and he isn't even that this year...though he's a good piece if he can take it easy with the slashing penalties.

    I'd like to see some veteran insurance on the backend. Two or three more 19s in the forward group, and one big fish.


    I agree that Hart could be a valuable piece going down the stretch, and we all know in a short series (Memorial Cup) that a great goaltending performance can win it for you. Less than that can have the opposite result.

    There is no doubt that Everett will want an obscene price for him including a couple of first borns! That may deter teams from making the trade, so in the end it could cause the price to come down. Just the same it will be steep, maybe too steep.

    As an option to Hart if they were thinking of an upgrade, I wonder if Skinner might not fit the bill?? He's a very good goalie with high compete level. The price might be a little more reasonable due to his reduced star power.

    I agree with additions you mention. I would hope that Paddock brings in a left winger for Steel/Henry sooner than later. I really want to see that line get going. Hopefully a big guy like Leedahl with some attitude, ready to look after those guys.

    To get past MJ and SC it will require upgrades everywhere however they shouldn't overlook a real tough kid. Platt isn't the answer IMO. SC took liberties last year and nothing was done. We can't let our top players be brutalized and injured because of punks.

    Playoffs will be war and we needs to score, defend etc. but we can't let happen to us what was happening last playoffs. We need a couple truculent guys ready to answer the bell at the drop of a dime.

  5. #25

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    Random responses:
    a) I really liked the comparison to Portland that Choppper made. I think that was part of the reason that the Pats took some fliers on some American kids in last years bantam draft. They took a kid like Smilanic (sp?) to take a shot at high end talent without using a high end pick. As much as I like everything the Pats have done last year, it seems a little naive that we could trade away most of our high end picks for the next 3 years and still be competitive.
    b) Tough east division......the East is extremely good this year. However, I am not sold that Swift Current will be there at the end of the year. They have one high end line, but they have a goalie that is unproven in the playoffs as well as a general lack of depth. In my opinion, Regina and Swift are almost destined to run into each other in first round of playoffs. Either team can win whether they upgrade or not. Heck a much weaker Swift team gave the Pats a serious scare in last years playoffs due to a hot goalie. Even if we load up, we could still lose to Swift in Round 1.
    c) Hart----As much as I would love to have him in net. I just think the Pats would be better off using their picks and prospectives to acquire scoring depth and a shut down dman. In terms of other goalies, Skinner (no thanks) and nobody else available is a significant upgrade on Brown. Brown has had two deep playoffs runs.....no reason their can't be a third.
    d) Bottom 6 or bottom 2 dman.....that doesn't worry me. I think we have enough guys playing occasionally on the top 6 (Lockner, Holmes, Buziak) that will be well placed when they are on the bottom 6 or fourth line. In terms of D, I would like one more top 4 dman, then I will have no issue with Creta, Schioler, and Zamula in the bottom 2.
    e) All In--- I dont agree with going all in, but my thoughts are not much different then Reider that wanted all in. I think picking Zamula in the import draft shows that the Pats are still keeping an eye on the future (as they should). With Struch taking over the bench next year, I know that the intent isn't to leave him in a similar position as he was in Saskatoon.
    f) Former Pats- Zablocki, Woods, Richards......people have to give up on them. They were traded away for other reasons.

  6. #26

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    On Brown, I don't think many fans would be opposed to keeping him. I know there are an outspoken few, but to Pats7's point above here, the benefits of trading him for an equal goalie or a slight upgrade go further than just in the net.

    The larger benefit comes from being able to add a 20 year old elsewhere. For example, do I think Skinner is better than Brown? No. But if adding him meant we could then add a guy like.... Strand from Seattle (or Ottenbreit lol).... or.... Davis from Everett... or.... Fiala from Saskatoon even? (I'm not a huge Fiala fan but he would add a physical/size element we don't have) maybe add a forward instead such as Bajkov from Everett... or.... Ronning from Vancouver (as long as he comes with Benson too lol) I mean the options at forward are endless (Hebig, Elyniuk, Shmyr, Gennaro, Stallard, Estephan, Twarynski, Topping, Stukel... and on and on).

    Anyways, that's where the benefit from trading Brown comes. So if that's the reason we bring in Skinner, I am for it. Any other year I wouldn't bother.

    One final point on this whole thing:

    The only goalies that are honestly even worth looking at are Hart, Ferguson, or Skinner. In that small group, consider that Ferguson got hot for less than half a season last year and his numbers don't impress outside of that, and Skinner to me is a wildcard but has at least been a starter for a long time and has proven himself with good numbers before, plus he would have to be cheaper than Hart and won't miss time for World Juniors (let's be real he's not making that team at all). Outside of that, there isn't a single goalie (or team willing to trade a goalie probably) that I would consider as a fan. I don't see PA letting Scott go as he is a 99 and they could very well be a solid team next year when he is 19. Also, I don't think you want an 18 year old start in the Mem Cup unless he's your own goalie (Dipietro last year for Windsor for example).

  7. #27

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    Carter Hart makes the most sense. He's the best 19 year old goaltender in the league and possibly the CHL, which would mean an upgrade in goal for the Pats, plus it would open up another 20 year old spot.

    Tyler Brown is currently playing better than Skinner and Ferguson. Do the Pats make a lateral move or downgrade in goal just to open up a 20 year old spot? I'm not sure that's a good idea. The guy the Pats need is Carter Hart. You'd have to go back to the 2015-2016 season in order to see great stats from Stuart Skinner.

  8. #28

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    I took the opportunity to go over some of the goaltending stats and found some surprising things. Some people just look at save % as the key important. Important yes but not the most because there are other more telling stats like shots taken per game. Theoretically if you have a lighter workload per game, you GAA and Sv% should be much better but that's not always the case. Below I will list the "shots per game" various good goalies are taking. Look at two of the lighter workload goalies stats:

    34.3……Outhouse
    33.3…..Flodell
    32.5…..Kehler
    32.0…..Skinner
    31.5…..Wilms
    29.1…..Hart………1.79 GAA, 941 Sv%
    27.3…..Brown…..2.80 GAA, 902 sv%

    Hart has a bit lighter workload per game and his stats reflect that. Brown has some work to do.
    Outhouse and Flodell are taking 6 and 7 shots more per game than Brown and about 5 more than Hart. After 5 games Outhouse and Flodell are taking an extra 25-30 shots (the equivalent of one extra game). When you compare goalies it's not just the obvious numbers that need to be looked at. Much more goes into what a goalie is actually doing. The purpose of this exercise is to look into the numbers and what they really mean and not to determine who is the better goalie. That will always be subjective based on individual points of view.

    The bottom line is that in a short hard tournament like the Memorial Cup, a bad goal a game will sink you. You absolutely need to be stout. These things all too often come down to goaltending and special teams. Regardless of who is on the final team it needs to be the best possible players both current and what we can obtain through trades. It may take decades for a do-over.

  9. #29

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    Quantity of shots doesn't tell the entire story either chopper. What's missing in all of these stats are the quality of the scoring chances and the save difficulty of each shot, then calculate those numbers into a score at the end of the game and season. Baseball somewhat captures this with identifying defensive errors etc, but that doesn't even capture the entire picture 100%. There's no way to measure all of this. Every shot and every game is different and comes with a different degree of difficulty, which is nearly impossible to measure, which is why the eye test is also important. We saw Tyler Brown let in a lot of really weak goals last year that other goaltenders did not appear to be making or were making with the same amount of frequency. I'm seeing less of it so far this year from Brown, which is good, but his stats still aren't great. So we must consider other factors. Are the Pats giving up more quality scoring opportunities this year? Are they taking more penalties this year? Is their PK worse this year? etc.

    Yes, there is very little room for error when it comes to the Memorial Cup and my instincts tell me that Carter Hart is the ideal goaltender for the Pats to have in that tournament. There's a reason why he made team Canada last year and there's a reason why he'll be on the team again this year. He was outstanding in the WHL-Russia series (shut out in game one, the only game he played), stopping many grade A scoring chances by Russia early in the game. If you watch his movement, he's very technical and if you listen to him speak, his philosophy on movement is that less is more.

  10. #30

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    There are a dozens of different nuances you can use but in all reality it's all about the rubber your facing. Much like last year Brown didn't face all that much rubber comparatively speaking. He should have been the leader in every category but wasn't. This year he is under 30 shots a game. Assuming all these goalies are from pretty good teams then it would follow that they have likely all faced similar types and quality of shots. To suggest one goalie faces harder or tougher shots simply isn't probable. If anything Outhouse and Flodell probably face more of the tougher variety since they play for high octane teams where a lot of turnovers will happen going the other way. However all in all most of these goalies are facing on average very similar quality shots and chances. Last year Flodell faced tons of rubber and held his team in most nights, however eventually even he wore down. He was very good and clearly their best player. Little wonder Viveros went after him right away this season.

    Obviously Hart is the best goalie in the league and I would feel more confident with him in net going down the stretch, and in the memorial Cup since he has and once more will be on the world stage again. At this moment I don't know who would give what Everett will likely want. I hope it's here but it's really hard to call that one.

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