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Thread: PATS SECOND HALF - HIGHER EXPECTATIONS

  1. #141

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    I had the "feeling" that the Warriors/Broncos/Pats were all fairly equal in the top 6 forwards and top 3 dmen on each team when it comes to firepower. It is impossible to compare the teams fairly. Some players are newly acquired, have played different roles on different teams all year. For example, would guys like Estephan or Hebig get the same opportunities for ice or PP time that they did on their former teams? With players missing for injuries or world juniors, comparing on points wouldn't make sense either. I decided to look at Points per Game stats......not perfect, but see below.

    MJ
    Forwards- Burke 2.02 Halbgewachs 1.91 Howden 1.71 Almeida 1.43 Jeannot 1.39 Peckford 0.87
    Defence- Clague 1.66 Brook 0.94 Woo 0.81

    Swift
    Forwards- Heponiemie 2,45 Steenbergen 2.21 Gawdin 1.86 Estephan 1.45 Gennaro 1.35 Minulin 0.66
    Defence- Sissons 1.05 Minulin 0.66 Khaira 0.56

    Regina
    Forwards- Hebig 1.44, Steel 1.29, Bradley 1.13, Legian 0.91, Oksanen 0.86 Henry 0.73 (Gabrielle is obviously top 6 but not enough stats yet)
    Defence- Mahura 1.09 Hajek 0.74 Fleury 0.73

    After looking at the stats, my thoughts:
    a) You can see why MJ has been winning all year, other than Clague and Peckfort, the others have been part of the team all year. They are having a monster year and have depth.
    b) Swift Currrent made depth moves for a reason, they added forwards because it was really only one line producing. Everyone on this board has been saying that, but its proof.
    c) Shows why the Pats basically overhauled their whole roster. The top guys were facing the top defenders every night. Many of them have decreased production from last year so adding guys like Hebig, Legian, Gabrielle, Hajek, and Fleury were no brainers to kick start things.

    Everything still points to MJ being the cream of the crop, but Swift has closed ground.

  2. #142

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    Tonights Thoughts
    1) Laughing at those of you that were on Mahura's case.
    2) Boys vs Men
    3) Hyman has such long reach, he closes space defensively just on his reach alone.
    4) Not gonna read too much into that one.

  3. #143

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    I calculated how much bigger this year's Pats team is compared to last year's playoff roster.

    2016-2017 Pats Playoff roster was on average:
    6.077 ft. tall and 188.5 lbs / player

    2017-2018 Pats post trade deadline roster on average:
    6.098 ft. tall and 192.4 lbs / player

    This year's team is slightly taller and on average 3.9 lbs heavier per player than last year's team.

    Also, Ryan Kubic's stats as a Pat are really good so far:
    3 GP 2.31 GAA 0.940 SAV%

    It'll be interesting to see how the Pats play against Moose Jaw and Swift Current. They play Moose Jaw on Friday and Swift Current twice towards the end of the month.
    Last edited by Reider; 01-14-2018 at 03:20 AM.

  4. #144

    Iconchl

    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    I calculated how much bigger this year's Pats team is compared to last year's playoff roster.

    2016-2017 Pats Playoff roster was on average:
    6.077 ft. tall and 188.5 lbs / player

    2017-2018 Pats post trade deadline roster on average:
    6.098 ft. tall and 192.4 lbs / player


    This year's team is slightly taller and on average 3.9 lbs heavier per player than last year's team.

    Also, Ryan Kubic's stats as a Pat are really good so far:
    3 GP 2.31 GAA 0.940 SAV%

    It'll be interesting to see how the Pats play against Moose Jaw and Swift Current. They play Moose Jaw on Friday and Swift Current twice towards the end of the month.
    I don't think that minimal size difference really means much so I personally don't read too much into that.

    I want Kubic to do well but want to state that even though he faced a pile of shots from MH, all the shots were from the outside and weren't quality chances. Same thing last night against a very weak Calgary team last night. In fact he gave up a soft one last night. Yes good stats so far but you can't really read too much into it. As mentioned next weekend will be a better measure of where we stand. I will say Hyman is my favorite pickup so far, he makes a goaltenders life simple keeping shots coming from outside the "home plate". I like the look of Sam on one half wall and Hebig on the other on PP unit #1. Prior, you knew D was looking for Sam but now can go to Cam too with him being a right handed shot. If Gabrielle and Sam can keep the chemistry going at even strength it could be scary. Things looked too easy last night, let's so how they do when they have a challenge.

  5. #145

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    Good posts gents. A couple comments

    On Pats7 post #141 on stats. a few comments.

    #1 - In your top forwards comparison, one of the aces we hold is not on your list, but just might be one of the key forwards in the WHL right now. Do-it-all Jake Lechyshyn is HANDS DOWN, far and away the best 3rd line center in the Western Hockey League. When you add guys like Robbie Holmes (more on him later) and a point per game import like Oksanen to that line, it's the best 3rd line in the WHL and rivals most teams second lines.

    #2 - while Gabrielle's stat line might be thin, we definitely do have an apples-to-apples comparison on him. From the WHL's 2012 draft (1997 born) only Tyler Soy had more goals than Gabrielle coming into this season. In fact Gabrielle's 110 goals were better than the other marquee 20 year olds moved this season - Estephan (101), Gennaro (82), Hebig (58). Noting that Hebig missed a full season, but a 52 goal gap still tells you what type of quality goal scorer we have in Gabrielle. When comparing his production to the 20 year forwards who are entrenched as staples on those stacked lineups, they aren't on the same planet - Gawdin (70), Burke (54), Habgewachs(63) , Jeannot (37). Noting that this season goaltending is generally weak accross the league and as a result goals are at an all time high for this century (2000+). Not a stretch at all to say if Gabrielle played the full season he's likely challenging Steenburgen for #1 in the WHL's goal scoring race. And of course, goal scoring isn't everything. Gabrielle brings that complete 200 foot game with strong defense, strong character, pro experience and that agitators swagger that he had on moderate display last night.

    #3 - Robbie Holmes. While he's not on your list, Holmes has taken his game to another level. He's been a goal per game guy since the trades broke and might be our best penalty killer right now. He is playing with a ton of confidence and has begun to showcase a pretty slick release on his shots. Dare I say he's starting to look like Austin Wagner "light". Obviously not world-class fast like Wagner, but Holmes is as fast as we have in our forward group, one of the fastest in the league and has that long strong stick he uses to effortlessly disrupt passing and shooting lanes. Once Oksanen gets healthy the combination of Jake, Okasanen and Robbie Holmes 2.0 is going to be both scary and effective.

    #4 - Justin Almeid / Moose Jaw forwards stats. While Almeida deserves all the accolades he's getting, I am reminded of the guy he was traded for. Nikita Popugaev was a point and a half per game player in Hunters 2 line system but faded to a 1/2 point per game guy in the 4 line system employed in Prince George. Almedia is the exact opposite. A 1/2 point per game gy in the 4 line system and now a point and a half per game guy in the 2 line system. Meaning, the numbers for Moose Jaw's top guys are simply inflated by the system they play in. Jeannot, Almeda, Peckford are not on par with guys like Bradley, Hebig, Gabrielle and if John wants to shorten the bench and go blow for blow with Hunter's top guns, we win that battle 7 out of 10 times.

    Frankly, Swift Current doesn't worry me. We are significantly better than the Broncos. I also think we are better now than the Warriors, however, they did not mess with their team much at all so their season long chemistry is intact. Might take a month to catch up in that regard.

    On crashnbang post #144 on chemistry, two comments

    #1.) Aaron Hyman. After the trades were done my buddy texted me that Paddock had the put the team on HGH, (meaning Hajek-Gabrielle-Hebig), but could just as easy use Hyman as an "H" in that equation. He's big, strong, reliable and exactly what we needed in our top 4. I was initially concerned the Davidson for Hajek trade was pretty close to lateral considering what we gave up but once all the pieces fell in place in makes perfect sense. Hajek-Hyman will be an excellent 2nd pairing with a defensive focus to offset the more offensively inclined duo of Mahura-Fleury. Plus Hyman gives us that raw physical presence that was lacking from our lineup. Keep some of Swift Curren't goons in check. Adding Poteau for the 3rd pairing was icing on the cake. Love our defense now and it's showing, as you observed, we are not giving up much in the way of quality shots.

    #2.) Josh Mahura. You eluded to the chemistry that is coming together between Gabrielle and Steel and it was on display somewhat against Calgary, but for me the common denominator was Mahura. When Mahura was on the ice with Steel and Gabrielle they were unstoppable. Mahura gives them that 4th forward and they were able to sustain quality zone time down below the dots and create quality scoring chances. It becomes a matter of "pick your poison" as you have two quality snipers with Gabrielle and Henry and two quality puck movers with Mahura and Steel. When Mahura was not on the ice, even that line was more one and done in the offensive zone.

    Work in progress for sure, but we have all the pieces to come through the front door. The big test, IMO, is the 3 game series with Moose Jaw in mid-February. We take two out of three there and we will enter the playoffs as the favorites to win the league I think.

  6. #146

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer
    #1 - In your top forwards comparison, one of the aces we hold is not on your list, but just might be one of the key forwards in the WHL right now. Do-it-all Jake Lechyshyn is HANDS DOWN, far and away the best 3rd line center in the Western Hockey League. When you add guys like Robbie Holmes (more on him later) and a point per game import like Oksanen to that line, it's the best 3rd line in the WHL and rivals most teams second lines.
    I agree, Jake has just started to play like the guy that I expected to see at the start of the year. Holmes has really developed well this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer
    #1.) Aaron Hyman. After the trades were done my buddy texted me that Paddock had the put the team on HGH, (meaning Hajek-Gabrielle-Hebig), but could just as easy use Hyman as an "H" in that equation. He's big, strong, reliable and exactly what we needed in our top 4. I was initially concerned the Davidson for Hajek trade was pretty close to lateral considering what we gave up but once all the pieces fell in place in makes perfect sense. Hajek-Hyman will be an excellent 2nd pairing with a defensive focus to offset the more offensively inclined duo of Mahura-Fleury. Plus Hyman gives us that raw physical presence that was lacking from our lineup. Keep some of Swift Curren't goons in check. Adding Poteau for the 3rd pairing was icing on the cake. Love our defense now and it's showing, as you observed, we are not giving up much in the way of quality shots.
    I dont think Hajek for Davidson is lateral at all. Perhaps offensively, but Hajek is far better in his own zone. He was on the all star team at the World Juniors amongst the elite of the elite. Paddock was quoted recently saying that some scouted believe he is the top defensemen in the league. Huge upgrade. I agree that our defence is now one of the best.....it will even better when Creta is not coughing the puck up 3 times a game.


    Quote Originally Posted by Flyer
    #2.) Josh Mahura. You eluded to the chemistry that is coming together between Gabrielle and Steel and it was on display somewhat against Calgary, but for me the common denominator was Mahura. When Mahura was on the ice with Steel and Gabrielle they were unstoppable. Mahura gives them that 4th forward and they were able to sustain quality zone time down below the dots and create quality scoring chances. It becomes a matter of "pick your poison" as you have two quality snipers with Gabrielle and Henry and two quality puck movers with Mahura and Steel. When Mahura was not on the ice, even that line was more one and done in the offensive zone.
    I noticed the same thing but I dont think it is limited to Steel's line. It has taken Fleury and Mahura 6 weeks but they have developed really good chemistry. It doesn't matter the forward group they are out with, they are making that forward group better. Fleury and Mahura skate and move the puck so well that it just makes it easier to get out of your own end and play offence. I have actually noticed that when they play with the fourth line, they occasionally make plays that guys on that line arent ready for. Work in progress absolutely, but it should be a world of fun!!!

  7. #147

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pats7 View Post
    I dont think Hajek for Davidson is lateral at all. Perhaps offensively, but Hajek is far better in his own zone. He was on the all star team at the World Juniors amongst the elite of the elite. Paddock was quoted recently saying that some scouted believe he is the top defensemen in the league. Huge upgrade. I agree that our defence is now one of the best.....it will even better when Creta is not coughing the puck up 3 times a game.
    Davidson wasn't all we gave up. In addition to Davidson's offense, we also had to give up Zamula's defense off the current team and opened a gaping hole on the 3rd pair. So even though Hajek is a defensive improvement on Davidson while only being a small step back offensively, losing Zamula and opening that gaping hole made it somewhat lateral. So grabbing Hyman to compliment the 2nd pair and filling the hole with Poteau on the 3rd pair completed the puzzle and made the move make sense. Without the additions of Hyman & Poteau, the Hajek move on it's own didn't make our back end better. It made it worse.

  8. #148

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pats7 View Post
    Tonights Thoughts
    1) Laughing at those of you that were on Mahura's case.
    2) Boys vs Men
    3) Hyman has such long reach, he closes space defensively just on his reach alone.
    4) Not gonna read too much into that one.
    Pats vs Calgary looked like a Bantam house team playing a Midget aaa team lol. Hitman a joke maybe should join MJHL leagues. Pats could of had 7-10 more goals . 4-5 breakways on PK.
    Bradley goal sick and Sam and Gabrielle sick.

    Pats should score 6-7 goals a game. I will watch Oilers 80s hockey any day!

    Sat near scout section and that reported Warriors are the team. Let's see how series goes.

  9. #149

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    On paper it looks like JP made some good trades since Xmas, better than the ones prior to Xmas, getting Gabrielle was excellent. The big question remaining is goaltending, is Kubic good enough? To be fair though, MJ have tender questions as well! SC look in best shape in net. Anyway, I hope you guys succeed enough to pass Bdn for third, and my WKs end up one point behind you and cross over! Very interested to see all of SC, MH and the Pats now and get a feel for who is the beast of the East! The fans I feel worst for are PA, what a mess of a trade deadline, I feel like the blades also gave up way too much for Gerlach. I will feel really good about WKs trades when Thorpe and lambos sign!
    Last edited by sbtatter; 01-14-2018 at 11:32 PM.
    Never argue with idiots, they just drag you down to their level then beat you with experience.

  10. #150

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    Quote Originally Posted by sbtatter View Post
    On paper it looks like JP made some good trades since Xmas, better than the ones prior to Xmas, getting Gabrielle was excellent. The big question remaining is goaltending, is Kubic good enough? To be fair though, MJ have tender questions as well! SC look in best shape in net. Anyway, I hope you guys succeed enough to pass Bdn for third, and my WKs end up one point behind you and cross over! Very interested to see all of SC, MH and the Pats now and get a feel for who is the beast of the East! The fans I feel worst for are PA, what a mess of a trade deadline, I feel like the blades also gave up way too much for Gerlach. I will feel really good about WKs trades when Thorpe and lambos
    Since Kubic has been here he’s posted a GAA of 2.40 and a 94% save percentage Both 2nd in the league next to Carter Hart. Small sample for sure, but a pretty solid start and I think indicative of the team in front of him. (Meanwhile Brown let in 5 on First 14 shots he faced from Kootenay tonight. Yah think John knew what he was doing? Apparently not his first rodeo). As for the rest of the trades, Gabrielle > Gennaro. Hebig > Estephan. Hajek > Anderson. Legien > Malenstyn. Pratt > Nagel. Plus we add Hyman and Poteau? We crushed Swift Current at the trade deadline. Let’s hope it translates on the ice. So far so good
    Last edited by Flyer; 01-14-2018 at 06:50 PM.

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