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Thread: November - December 2019 Games

  1. #51

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    Chopper you are right that the Pats lack talent but what gets me is it seams that the players are regressing not progressing. It’s 20 not very talented players with no structure no discipline and only minimal effort. It’s up to the coaches to correct all of those. I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel only continued darkness.

  2. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by RWAH View Post
    Chopper you are right that the Pats lack talent but what gets me is it seams that the players are regressing not progressing. Itís 20 not very talented players with no structure no discipline and only minimal effort. Itís up to the coaches to correct all of those. I donít see a light at the end of the tunnel only continued darkness.
    You're correct about that. I watch the game with an eye towards systems, work ethic, discipline, play without the puck. There seems to be very little structure to their game and some of the mistakes from 20 games ago are still happening. You are right that it's up to the coaches to correct things. The concern is that perhaps these coaches are unable to do that. By that I mean over the past few years we have been coached to more or less run and gun, with defence being entirely optional. It's how Paddock coached and how Struch learned. However we no longer have an abundance of high end talent which means we have to play differently until we accumulate that talent once again. We need to be highly structured, play tough man on man defence, always be on the right side of the puck, be shoulder to shoulder with your check. We need to create turnovers and score on the counter attack. Play a risk free game. We can't play run and gun with a lesser talented and experienced team.

    When one looks at Everett they have very few household names or high draft picks, yet they are running away with the USA Division, were USA Division Pennant winners and league finalists last year, and won the USA Division Pennant the year before, (2017 and 2018). Constantine put in a good system that they continue to play today. Always near the top with rarely any top picks or big names maybe with the exception of Carter Hart. Proving when you play the right way you don't have to go into the abyss for several years after a couple of decent years. It will take 4-6 years before any of our 2019/2020 picks become impact guys. In the meantime we will have to find a way to be highly competitive and that means we will need to change how we play. It also wouldn't hurt to hire a second assistant coach to deal strictly with our young d-men.

  3. #53

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    This should come surprise to nobody. And its why memorial cup hangover years are so tough to get over. Because they will still need a foundation to properly rebuild on, and they dont have that right now.

    This year will be a futile effort. A complete write off. Itll still be better than 04-05 but not far off. If we have basic lateral development from most of our players, meaning no permanent regression, it'll be a win. With the exception of dubinsky and maybe alkimov, our youth doesn't have high upside to begin with + is also going to be a low confidence group going into next year. We need one more player to step up and exceed predicted expectations if we expect to see any sort of gains from this year, where we will finish bottom five or three. Next year is almost certainly a playoff miss too but hopefully better.

    Maybe when our 01 group is prominent, in two seasons, if everything goes right we could aspire to a second round playoff matchup, but in my mind that is the best I can hope for. I doubt anyone on the current club will be apart of a contending pats team. Maybe dubinsky.

    Once we draft this top tier kid in 2020, or maybe luck out and steal a great player late in the first in the next draft, then we can start rebuilding. This cycle we are currently on won't have much in regards to results. But in 2022 when the top 5 pick is in his 16 yr old year, we could see another steel type of cycle.

    People might think I'm unnecessarily pessimistic. But this is the price you pay for hosting and going *all* in. The one way I see it all changing is if smilanic reports soon. If he comes in, that changes everything. For now, we should assume been going college or something.

  4. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by chopper View Post
    You're correct about that. I watch the game with an eye towards systems, work ethic, discipline, play without the puck. There seems to be very little structure to their game and some of the mistakes from 20 games ago are still happening. You are right that it's up to the coaches to correct things. The concern is that perhaps these coaches are unable to do that. By that I mean over the past few years we have been coached to more or less run and gun, with defence being entirely optional. It's how Paddock coached and how Struch learned. However we no longer have an abundance of high end talent which means we have to play differently until we accumulate that talent once again. We need to be highly structured, play tough man on man defence, always be on the right side of the puck, be shoulder to shoulder with your check. We need to create turnovers and score on the counter attack. Play a risk free game. We can't play run and gun with a lesser talented and experienced team.
    Are you suggesting that......
    a) The Pats are playing the same style as last year? I dont think that could be further from the truth. I actually think the Pats have tried to score many nights on the counter attack, they just dont have the scoring to do that....even more so after the last trade. The Pats have trouble scoring as it is, becoming more defensive isnt going to fix the offence.

    b)Struch is part of the problem? I think that notion is ridiculous. The bottom line is the talent is not there. The only frustration I have that comes back to coaching is discipline....that is one thing that hasn't changed from last year.

  5. #55

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    Quote Originally Posted by RWAH View Post
    Chopper you are right that the Pats lack talent but what gets me is it seams that the players are regressing not progressing. It’s 20 not very talented players with no structure no discipline and only minimal effort. It’s up to the coaches to correct all of those. I don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel only continued darkness.
    Provide examples of individual players that are regressing. Other than Creta and maybe Max, I cant name one. Goalie regression is even harder to measure because it is more a product of the teams that Max has played infront of the last two years. I think several young players are starting to settle in a bit. Massier, Wright, Nijhoff, Pratt, and Evans have all shown growth this year. 5 Forwards are new from trades. I just think it is too easy to blame coaching when the team is young and lacks natural scoring talent. It makes it easy for everyone to claim coaching, systems, and effort is a problem when a team is losing so often. It comes back to being young and not talented.

  6. #56

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    Quote Originally Posted by Some_Arrogant_Jerk View Post
    This should come surprise to nobody. And its why memorial cup hangover years are so tough to get over. Because they will still need a foundation to properly rebuild on, and they dont have that right now.

    This year will be a futile effort. A complete write off. Itll still be better than 04-05 but not far off. If we have basic lateral development from most of our players, meaning no permanent regression, it'll be a win. With the exception of dubinsky and maybe alkimov, our youth doesn't have high upside to begin with + is also going to be a low confidence group going into next year. We need one more player to step up and exceed predicted expectations if we expect to see any sort of gains from this year, where we will finish bottom five or three. Next year is almost certainly a playoff miss too but hopefully better.

    Maybe when our 01 group is prominent, in two seasons, if everything goes right we could aspire to a second round playoff matchup, but in my mind that is the best I can hope for. I doubt anyone on the current club will be apart of a contending pats team. Maybe dubinsky.

    Once we draft this top tier kid in 2020, or maybe luck out and steal a great player late in the first in the next draft, then we can start rebuilding. This cycle we are currently on won't have much in regards to results. But in 2022 when the top 5 pick is in his 16 yr old year, we could see another steel type of cycle.

    People might think I'm unnecessarily pessimistic. But this is the price you pay for hosting and going *all* in. The one way I see it all changing is if smilanic reports soon. If he comes in, that changes everything. For now, we should assume been going college or something.
    I am negative about this team right now, but I am glad that I am not you. You are way too negative in your thoughts of this group. When Brooks was 17- nobody expected a superstar. The truth is that it is hard to predict development of teenagers. The fact that the trade rules changed probably forced this to be a longer rebuild than anything. Under the old system, guys like Hobbs and Lecyshyn would never have become Pats.

    One last thing, to think one player (Smilanic) will drastically change if one player reports is crazy.

  7. #57

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    I don't think S-A-J is being unduly pessimistic at all. In fact he is quite realistic. He is also quite correct that having young players and young talent are two different things. This rebuild should have been a reload but because of some moves, we're in a full blown rebuild and they take several years. In 2001-02 after our Memorial Cup appearance, we won 40 games and had a pretty good team. We didn't move the likes of Korol, Hubbauer etc. Had we moved some pieces at the 2002 deadline, we would have never sunk to where we did later on.

    Last year we underperformed out the gate and JP perhaps misjudged. It forced him to make moves he might not have needed/wanted to, and pay a huge price. The Mahura deal from 2017 has crippled us because we gave up what amounted to 4 first round picks.
    Combined with two 1st round picks last year it's not hard to see why we are where we are. One 52 win season and losing in the finals, followed by a sub .500 team at Xmas needing a complete rebuild last year. A first round exit and no Memorial Cup. Was it worth it? Of the players we probably paid overly high for IMO, none put us over the top. No difference makers leading to a championship of some sort. If nothing else it should be cause for thought and reflection re: cost/reward.

    If you look at Kelowna, Portland, and recently Brandon/red Deer (2016), you don't see teams that tank for 5-7 years after a Memorial Cup appearances. While this perhaps will be long and painful, it shouldn't have been and there is no real need for it to be like this.

    After Portland appeared in the memorial Cup of 2013 they followed it up with a 54 win season. They have only finished less than 40 wins once since then and never missed the playoffs
    After Kelowna appeared in the Memorial Cup in 2015 they have never finished below 40 wins and have never missed the playoffs
    After Brandon/Red Deer appeared on the Memorial Cup in 2016, neither team has missed the playoffs

    The question that comes to my mind is why is it that we think we need to take these long periods of time to recover? Is it a Regina thing where we simply don't know how to build consistently? Are we being fed a false narrative by the media where after a "small smattering" of success, it must be followed by years and years of relative futility? You can circle back any way you want but in the end it comes to hockey operations, management, scouting, and coaching. These other teams don't fall off the table. Why do we? Sadly we are just hoping we don't regress too far this season. We started the season with three OA d-men, two of the top forwards in the league, a solid goalie, some good 19's in Pratt and Holmes. Our talent was at least as good if not better than Everett's YET they are running away with USA Division title and we are in the hunt for the 1st overall bantam pick. A tale of two organizations! There are reasons why other organizations don't have these huge peaks and valley's after a Memorial Cup appearance. There has to be a reason why we are having this one with a forecast of more to come.

    Just to find some respectability next season the scouts need to really dig deep and find some talent. They should be energized knowing they have a 1st and 3rd to work with this draft and perhaps more to come. It has to be tough when you are strictly looking at the second tier players because you have no top picks. We can't give up picks like trading cards but instead look for good hockey trades that are value added and good fits for our team. Drafting high in the Import Draft could be a boon. Much work is needed to get to the status of the other clubs I have mentioned. There is no justifiable reason why we are not in that conversation. It seems to me when you fritter away resources, one day you wake up to find you don't have any.

  8. #58

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    The question that comes to my mind is why is it that we think we need to take these long periods of time to recover? Is it a Regina thing where we simply don't know how to build consistently?
    I think you hit the nail on the head - We don't build successful teams through the draft. You look back to 2 years ago - The Pats were a very good team but needed some tweaking and we traded away the future in prospects and draft picks to make the team better. Combine that with the need to hold some assets for the following year's Memorial Cup run, you end up in a position where the cupboards were left bare this year. I look to Brandon & Red Deer in the East as examples - they consistently draft well throughout each draft - and only trade away a limited number of top draft picks.

    If we were able to retain more of our draft picks and pick players with the success of those teams - we would be in their company.

  9. #59

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    Regina doesn't know how to build consistently? If you want to nail the Parker era to these comments, I am all for it. When Paddock took over as GM, he immediately restocked for the future by trading vets for young players and picks. The Pats consistently built for the 4 years before the Memorial Cup to put the strongest team possible on the table.

    D-squared....you seem to have cherry picked info that suits your narrative. I went back to the 2014 Bantam Draft and compared the Pats and Rebels ability to draft talent. The Pats have drafted more players that have played in the league then Red Deer. Of course the Pats have traded a significant number of those players away in order to stock up talent for the last two years. Hollet, Cox, Barteaux, Lockner, Muir, Robins.....to name some of the more significant ones. You say Red Deer has only traded away a limited number of picks....yo mean like Lesychyn, Pratt, Mahura????? I would argue that Red Deer has done a good job of staying relevant because they have traded some high price pieces at good times. It has nothing to do with the quality of pics the team is making.

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