2019 Off-Season Discussion

[chopper]

Some good discussion guys!!!

WHL/NCAA - The NCAA puts out a lot of info but there are a lot of things not said. When the NCAA gives a player a four year scholarship, it not a four year ride. It's four (1) year contracts. It's dependent on academics and athletics. If you fall below what they think of your performances in either, they do not have to renew for the following year. If what I read is accurate I also don't see how going to Denver is shorter than travelling 8 hours? Many families use the NCAA option to pick and choose where their kids play in the WHL. It seldom works out well for the kid. In the case of Jost or Toews, they were top picks no matter and most of these kids are drafted before they ever sit down for year 1 in the NCAA. Most have contracts. Most never leave with their degrees at best playing one and rarely two years. It's not really an option except for perhaps a small kid who is developing slowly and needs four extra years to ripen if you will. Many like Tyler Wong find it's not to their liking and leave for home and the WHL. In the WHL kids still get college funds here and many take University level courses while playing. It's great for their future. Plus most are closer to home and can have parents see them. I'll bet Curtis Lescyshyn was happy to be able to watch his kid 2 hours from home rather than 2 days. I think WHL managers have to do an even better job of making families know these things and use it as a selling point.

IMPORT DRAFT - I'm hearing more and more stuff all the time about potential good euros that may be available in the top 10 etc. Sedov is not nearly as talented as Zamula but he is a decent player. At 19 points is he the best d-man on the Pats. According to the awards presentations I guess he was. He is now 18 and a 2nd round Import Draft pick. I believe he can be moved via trade so he does possess considerable value, especially to higher placed teams who won't pick too high. I don't necessarily suggest to trade him however they must do their due diligence when they need offence. Additional factor here is they have McGinley in the wings for sure. Jake Johnson is not too far behind. Panowyk could be in play, and there could always be the emergence of another Zonneveld. Add to it the fact the Pats may need an OA spot for a veteran d-man to anchor the group. Pouteau and Scioler are no longer here.

OVERVIEW - IT's often said if you have five players who have 20 goals or more, you're probably a playoff team. That kind of depth will carry you a long way. Pratt will for sure attain that, Alkimhov and Krane should, Kolle should as well, but beyond that I'm not certain. Most of Kolle's goals this year came when he was on better teams so we'll see. I firmly believe that there is always a probability of a trade with JP. If he can responsibly obtain an offensive player I'm betting he does. I think they want to be relatively sure they have much more offence next season. They will need to stabilize a young d-corps, their goaltending should be good. There will no doubt be some surprises both from current players and people coming in. If they are able to recruit a couple American kids to come and perhaps something happens with a gift from somewhere, they will need spots anyway. What I'm saying is there will be changes and the entire group will not all be back. That's how it always goes. The experience gained will help a great deal but 17's and 18's don't win you much. You need some leadership even on a young team and the Pats need ensure they have enough of that.
For next season the BIGGEST thing they have to do is start well. The poor play of our veteran players and goaltending early really hurt this team, and pretty much sealed their fate for the year. With what we had available at the beginning of last season i.e. Leschyshyn, Henry, Schioler, Pouteau, Hyman, Holmes, Mahovlich, Paddock, we should have been much better. Our two stars took about 10 games to come around and our goaltending took till Xmas time. That was the end of the season of this year. They need better from everyone here and come out ready to go from the first whistle. I'm really hoping for this team to surprise next year.

[Reider]

Sedov would be traded. If not, I don't want to see him go anywhere. The only reason Zamula was released last year was because you couldn't trade first year imports. That changed this year. Had they allowed those imports to be traded last year, Zamula would likely be on the Blades right now and Tristen Robins could possibly still be a Pat. On top of that, Sedov definitely has trade value. But this is only if Paddock wants to try and take advantage of the high pick. I'm sure he'll be doing his homework ahead of time. Otherwise, Sedov and Alkhimov are a great pair to move forward with if nothing does happen.

Yeah, for sure! Getting assets in return for Sedov would be a lot better than cutting him loose like the Pats had to do with Zamula last year. I agree that Sedov and Alkhimov are a good players to have moving forward if the Pats "stand pat" on the import situation so to speak. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

But honestly, the way Mitchell plays, I wouldn't be shocked if he gets more prime minutes next season, too.

If he comes into camp in better shape and has a good camp, I wouldn't be shocked if he got more opportunities next year either.

I suggested Sedov be made available though because he has the most value and while I agree those later picks can find great players, the higher picks can find you more sure fire, ready for junior at 16-17 players. That's the reason why I feel Paddock might try to move up in the draft. The most obvious way would be acquiring a higher 2nd round pick. Because of the CSSHL players often going higher than the club players, those second round picks could be more first round caliber than they're draft spot shows. A kid like Kyren Gronick will probably go first half of the 2nd round. Pats pretty well have four 3rd round picks with how late their 2nd rounder is. Watch for something to happen there.

Yeah, chopper mentioned that after Matthew Savoie, the talent level between the #2 - #30 picks will be really close. The Pats only have one pick in that range, so you might be on to something with the Pats possibly trading up to get a higher pick in the 2nd round. We'll see how it plays out.

As for the American kids, I've said it before, but I'll say it again. We will likely never see Bohlsen here. He's a Minnesotan and college is #1. I already gave my opinion on him. The guys the Pats need start trying to sign are Dylla, Panowyk, and 2003 Easton Armstrong. I forget what I saw forsure, but I recall him looking pretty good in camp last season. With the 2003 group looking far less skilled than their other age groups, he would be someone they will look to sign.

Yeah, some Americans are unfortunately 100% set on going to college in the USA and there's no way of convincing them otherwise. However, I agree that the Pats need to continue their efforts on recruiting the rest of them. If the Pats eventually get to the point where they have 6 quality / high end American players on the roster year in and year out, it would go a long way in ensuring that this organization stays competitive year after year.

With all the extra picks the Pats have this season, they can afford to take some flyers on some better American kids. If the Pats continue to sign and play American players, it could work out well for them down the line.

Agreed! I just hope that they don't waste their picks on American players that have zero chance of reporting. I suppose there's always a chance. Kieffer Bellows reported / got sent to Portland last year for his 19 year old season.

[Reider]

IMPORT DRAFT - I'm hearing more and more stuff all the time about potential good euros that may be available in the top 10 etc. Sedov is not nearly as talented as Zamula but he is a decent player. At 19 points is he the best d-man on the Pats. According to the awards presentations I guess he was. He is now 18 and a 2nd round Import Draft pick. I believe he can be moved via trade so he does possess considerable value, especially to higher placed teams who won't pick too high. I don't necessarily suggest to trade him however they must do their due diligence when they need offence. Additional factor here is they have McGinley in the wings for sure. Jake Johnson is not too far behind. Panowyk could be in play, and there could always be the emergence of another Zonneveld. Add to it the fact the Pats may need an OA spot for a veteran d-man to anchor the group. Pouteau and Scioler are no longer here.

With the good possibility that the Pats will want / need an OA defenseman next year, plus all of the young talented defensemen that played on the team this year and the ones that could make the team next year, it seems like there may be a bit of a log jam on defense next year and 1 or 2 defensemen will need to be traded. If you factor in that the Pats can draft in the top 10 of the import draft, the team is in need of more scoring next year, and also the fact that the Pats might want to trade up their 2nd round draft pick to get into the #2-30 range, I suppose we can't rule out the possibility of the Pats trading 1 or 2 of their defensemen (Sedov +) in order to move up in the bantam draft as well as to make a selection in the import draft. John Paddock has some big decisions to make.

If they are able to recruit a couple American kids to come and perhaps something happens with a gift from somewhere, they will need spots anyway. What I'm saying is there will be changes and the entire group will not all be back.

How do gifts work in the WHL? Do you mean like a Nick Henry (Carter Savoie?) reporting type of gift? That would be great if a good player decided to report. As for your second point, I think you're right. All non-OA's can be back next year, but they won't all be. I think John Paddock will tinker a bit, but hopefully not too much.

For next season the BIGGEST thing they have to do is start well. The poor play of our veteran players and goaltending early really hurt this team, and pretty much sealed their fate for the year. With what we had available at the beginning of last season i.e. Leschyshyn, Henry, Schioler, Pouteau, Hyman, Holmes, Mahovlich, Paddock, we should have been much better. Our two stars took about 10 games to come around and our goaltending took till Xmas time. That was the end of the season of this year. They need better from everyone here and come out ready to go from the first whistle. I'm really hoping for this team to surprise next year.

I couldn't agree with you more. If the goal is to make the playoffs next year, they'll need to come flying out of the gates and win some games early. If they are in the basement early, it'll be difficult to climb out in the second half, especially if it increases the chances of the Pats being sellers at the deadline.

While we're on the topic of next year's trade deadline, the Kelowna Rockets lost game #69 (tiebreaker with Kamloops) a couple of nights ago and are not in the playoffs this year. It looks like that team is going to require a lot of work over the next 9-10 months, which means that they'll probably have to make a lot of trades before next year's deadline. It looks like they might have themselves a player in Trevor Wong, but he'll only be 16 next year. This reinforces my opinion that the trade market will be strong next year and that the Pats should be able to get a solid return for players of value that they decide to trade away.

[chopper]

Hey Reider; that exactly what I meant when I said a gift !!. Sometimes players and families have epiphanies and decide to change their position. This year Carter Savoie kicked butt and had a boatload of points in the AJHL. He went on to win rookie of the year in the AJHL. I believe he was in what would be his 16 year old season. Now that he has accomplished all that in Tier 2, wouldn't it make sense to elevate his competition and his game? Would he gain much with another year of Tier 2 ??. Maybe the family comes around and figures that out. He is still in high school and a fairly long way off from being college eligible. It's closer to Regina than Denver.

I still get a strange feeling that something may be in the works somewhere! GM's have to be talking and JP holds one of the high cards if not trump card. If the family insists on having both boys play at the same place; where will that place be? Will they want one boy going NCAA where they won't see him much and one boy going WHL? 4 Possible Scenarios:

1. Winnipeg (Kootenay) need assets now especially going into a saturated Winnipeg market. Would they be willing to take a chance or do they move down in the draft and get some other assets plus a good 1st rounder? Who would they trade with? Winnipeg has to get going soon. Krebs seems to be on ann Island by himself there. I really question whether or not Winnipeg is willing to risk it, and all the possible drama involved.
2. If the Savoie family wants a team close to Edmonton, would any be willing to part with assets and picks needed for both Matthew Savoie and Carter Savoie. Might really hamstring a team for the some time, and disrupt their program.
3. Would Regina make a play for Matthew on the condition that Carter comes as well, would the family accept that? In light of the just recovered picks the Pats have, would they have any appetite to do something like that? Too risky??
4. In light of point #2 if some team was chosen by the family and that team was prepared to step up, the Pats would hold a trump card with Carter Savoie I think. That team would want both and what would they be prepared to pay the Pats for Carter? I'm sure Kelowna would love to have Carter Savoie in a Memorial Cup year but could Kelowna put together a good enough package to meet the Pats needs. Trevor Wong (who I mistakenly referred to as Tyler earlier) would be a great start but he/his parents would have to request a trade..wink…wink..and he is a BC boy. Iffy there! Wong (141 points in Bantam) is another case of a top #3 kid dropping to #18 because he was insisting on NCAA but in the end signed with Kelowna.

Outside of Pratt I see the OA thing as being pretty fluid with Steu being the other (and still unproven). Will Kolle produce in an acceptable manner for a 19 year old? Will Morriseau (19) return and bring 1st round performance and stats to match? Has Allen shown enough to assume a spot? I also agree that the Pats need an OA d-man brought into the mix. Along with two or three new d-men who might arrive, there could easily be a glut of d-men in a hurry. At least one would need to be moved, maybe two.

[Reider]

I just saw an interview awhile ago with John Paddock and he said:
- It will be a weaker bantam draft this year
- He's not concerned because there's always players falling through the cracks that can be had (mentioned Carter Hart being drafted in the 8th round) - I agree with him and feel the same way. Look at Cole Dubinsky and Ryker Evans! Austin Wagner was a 5th round draft pick in 2012 and he's playing in the NHL this year for the Los Angeles Kings. There's tons of examples of really good players still being available in the 3rd round and beyond. The Pats just have to make sure that they draft these players.
- John feels that the Pats should be able to cover all areas of the team with the first 5 picks. This does not mean that the Pats will not trade up to get a higher 2nd round pick. That's still to be determined.
- John would have liked the Pats to win more games and be closer to a playoff spot (paraphrasing), but he feels that the Pats did about as they possibly could this year. I agree, a few more wins wouldn't have changed much. The team did pretty good for being in the first year of a major rebuild.
- Based on the way he was talking, people in the organization are excited about the rebuild and based on the fan support this year, the fans are as well.

In terms of the Savoie saga, I don't understand why high end Canadian players want to go the college route. It's absolutely pointless. Tyson Jost, for example, played 3 years in Junior A (BCHL), then he played 1 year at the University of North Dakota, then went on to play in the NHL. He didn't get a college degree! What was the point of all of that? To play one year where his idol Jonathan Toews played? He might as well have played in the WHL for 4 years, then went straight to the NHL. He could have taken University classes after high school, while playing in the WHL if he really wanted to.

The college route seems better for players that are really good, but probably won't make it to the NHL or will make it to the NHL, but may get bounced around between the AHL/NHL for a few years, then fizzle out. At least that way, they get to earn a degree, play pro/NHL for a while, then they have something to fall back on.

These Savoie brothers, especially Matthew, do not seem to fall into that category. Matthew Savoie has been compared to Sidney Crosby and Nathan Mackinnon for crying out loud!
https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl...osby-1.4500318

Cale Makar is in his 2nd year at UMass. If he gets a degree, then goes on to play in the NHL, then good for him. I"m just not sure how many high end players are serious about playing Junior A, then 4 years in college getting a degree before finally playing in the NHL.

If the Savoie brothers are serous about getting degrees before taking their hockey careers to the next level, then good for them, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But when you are being compared to Sidney Crosby and Nathan Mackinnon, you probably don't have to ever worry about going to college.. and if something happens, college will always be there.

Chopper, this is what Sttop posted in the Wheat Kings forum:

I was told that the only team in Manitoba and Sask that he would consider is the blades

http://www.whlfans.ca/showthread.php...Season/page113

The problem is that Saskatoon has a good core right now and if they add some players in the off season / at next year's deadline, they could take another run at it. They'll have to use resources for their run next year (if they decide to be buyers), so I don't know if they'd want to use resources on getting Matthew Savoie. However, if Carter wants to play on the Blades next year, the Blades might be interested. The Blades and Pats might be able to work something out that's fair for both teams. The Pats drafted Carter in the 9th round, so anything they get would help. Perhaps Saskatoon would be willing to part with one of their good young players and / or draft pick(s). It would be much better than getting absolutely nothing for him. For instance, adding a player like Kyle Crnkovic (2002) would be great for the Pats' rebuild even though the Blades probably wouldn't want to part with him. I'm sure the Pats would consider early round draft picks. A good young player and a draft pick or two would be nice return.

On second thought, the Blades draft two spots behind Winnipeg in this years bantam draft. It's possible that they could work out something with Winnipeg for Matthew. It's better for Winnipeg to get a high end player that will report + a nice haul from Saskatoon, than to draft Matthew and never get him to report. The Blades would be set up for many years if they acquired both Matthew and Carter Savoie. If Saskatoon is on the Savoie family's list, then Saskatoon might be interested. They already have the Dach brothers. I"m just not sure that the Blades want to use a bunch of resources on high end younger players, when they are in a position to take another run next year. The timing might not be right. We'll have to see how it all plays out.

I"m not sure that an Alberta based team would acquire both Savoie brothers. That would be costly. It's possible though.

One would think that the Pats would be willing to have a discussion about trading up to get Matthew, if it would also mean that Carter would agree to report in the fall. Why wouldn't they want to have that discussion? It would probably cost a lot, but once again, this is a very tricky situation and Winnipeg can't be too greedy either otherwise they may end up wasting their pick on him and end up with nothing and the Pats may end up with nothing, holding Carter's rights. Based on Sttops post, Regina is not on the list of teams Matthew is willing to report to, which is unfortunate. I think the Savoie family needs to really think about this and reconsider. The Savoie brothers are offensive players and the Pats specialize in developing offensive players. Regina would be a great place for their development and both brothers would help tremendously with the rebuild over the next few years. Add in Ty Smilanic and Jake Johnson and some of the other younger prospects and it could really turn this team around in a hurry.

The Pats hold Carter's rights, so if any team in the league wants his rights, you can call it high ground or the trump card or whatever you like, but the offer would have to be fairly strong as I don't think John Paddock would give him away. The Pats are rebuilding, so they'd probably want at least one good young player coming back this way and possibly a draft pick or two. It would have to be a fair trade, a good trade for both teams.

Kelowna might be interested in Carter for next year, but I don't think Trevor Wong could be a part of that deal. He is 15 this year, 16 next year, and from what I understand, signed 15/16 year old players cannot be traded, thus Kelowna can not trade him next year. However, he could request a trade in 2 years, in his 17 year old season.

If something can't be worked out with the Savoie family and Alberta based teams or Saskatoon or Kelowna etc.. Carter should seriously consider reporting to Regina for camp in the fall and see how it goes. He can always go back to Junior A without losing his NCAA eligibility as long as he doesn't play in any exhibition or regular season games.

[chopper]

Very Interesting points for certain.

There are obviously people talking to people about the Savoie situation and there are many different ways it will turn out. For a family and perhaps a player start to dictating where or where he won't play is a slippery slope. WHL GM's don't like that one bit. When you take a kid early and perhaps his father become a problem/distraction etc, then what do you do? You can't move him unless he asks for a move and in some instances you can't move him at all. Your stuck with a problem. If Matthew Savoie is that good, he will be gone by the time he's 18 at any rate. How much do you give up and how much are you willing to risk? These situations don't usually turn out well for the player or his family. You can be sure NHL managers are hearing and reading about the situation as well.

Carter Savoie may not be as good as his brother but he is still an extremely good player. It is irrelevant IMO where he was taken because he is definitely a 1st round equivalency now. The Pats should demand a first round pick and something else to boot because he has already demonstrated excellence at the JrA level. A short while ago people were resigned to the fact that Carter Savoie would in all likelihood never wear a Pats uniform. That may still be the case one way or another. If some team needs Carter to go with Matthew then the price should be substantial or no deal. Paddock must stick to his guns and not give away talent too cheaply. We don't know if it's the family or the boys who are calling the shots, and it really doesn't matter. If JP were to take much less than he should it would amount to being used and send a bad message. Bruce Hamilton never would. When you have the hammer you need to use it. If he can't get proper value then the kid can play in Denver after next year. Carter has already committed and given indication of his future intentions and so be it. The Pats may get nothing but they weren't anyway before this saga took a twist. No loss.

After last year the Savoie's would have never picked Saskatoon with 5 years out of the playoffs. Now that the Blades have had an up-swing, the Savoie's look like they are trying to pick front runners. It's all too often the parents doing these things but the kids can get placed in an undesirable light, which is unfortunate.

[Reider]

The Pats just need to stay the course and focus on the Bantam draft. If Carter changes his mind and reports for camp, great. If a team offers the Pats what he is worth, great. If Carter ends up playing in Denver and never playing in the WHL, oh well. As long as the Pats stay the course and do well at the bantam drafts over the next few years, the future will still be bright.

Interesting discussion over on Riderfans.com. At least two people think that the Pats will miss the playoffs for at least the next 2-3 seasons, which means that the Pats will not make the playoffs until four years from now in the 2022-2023 season at the earliest, according to them. Next year is still a big question mark because there are still a lot of unknown variables (e.g. The OA situation, the import draft situation, what players will/won't report to camp next year, possible trades, how much work the players will put in during the off season and how good of a start they get off to next year etc..). However, I think some fans might be underestimating the determination of this ownership group, the gm, coaching staff and players. In two years from now (the 2020-2021 season), Cole Dubinsky, Makai Mitchell, Sam MicGinley (and Ty Smilanic if he joins the team) will be in their 18-year-old seasons, while Alkhimov, Sedov, Massier, Allan, Nijhoff, Wright, Feist, Zonneveld, and Evans will all be in their 19 year old seasons. Pierce, Morrisseau, Krane, Kolle, Walker, McNabb and Paddock will all be in their 20-year-old seasons, so the Pats will be able to keep 3 of them. They'll essentially have a veteran laden line up in two years. Of course a lot can change and some of these players may not be here next year, never mind in two years, but if it's too early to rule out a playoff appearance next year, it's certainly too early to rule out a playoff appearance two (or 3) years from now.


http://www.riderfans.com/forum/forum...2017-18/page42

[chopper]

Very good points about staying the course (well more or less…LOL). With JP it's always an adventure. When he says left he goes right! When he says down he goes up! He's a very hard man to predict. As song as he focuses on the picks he has in the Draft and has a productive Draft, the organization will be fine. Looking back the powerhouse Kamloops Blazers were built on two "listed players" named Iginla and Doan. These two listed guys were drafted high and went on to pretty good careers. Both will be in the HHOF. Listed guys. Jordan Eberle is just finishing up a 30 million dollar contract and will probably earn at least another 30 million before he's done. Not bad for a 7th round pick.

I think guys predicting 2-3 years out of playoffs are full of it. Obviously they haven't been to a Pats game in the past decade. Nobody can tell when and what a team will do especially in Jr hockey where things can change so quick. I firmly believe that with better goaltending early and had their veteran played better early, they could have won 5-6 more games by Xmas. In the 2nd half they clearly let a few games slip away where they had the lead late. They missed having just one more reliable scorer. Combined factor at least 4-5 more games lost. This team IMO could have quite reasonably won another 10 more games had they come out stronger and had one more goal scorer. What a difference 29 wins as opposed to 19 would have made. Had that happened most everyone would be talking about playoffs for next season instead of this droll 2-3 years from them. With the right moves and trades combined with a better start and Max playing strong,anything is possible. I'm too old not be believe that.

[chopper]

I was interested to look at some of the scores out of opening night. It appeared that PA, Vancouver and Everett showed why they were all pennant winners. Edmonton plays tonight. From the scores it looks like those teams come as advertised. They all may get roughed up a bit, but I would be surprised if they didn't all advance. The Spokane vs Portland result was a bit surprising. Blades/Warriors and Lethbridge/Calgary look to be close wars. Usually the highest ranked team prevails.

The first round is usually one where upsets can occur and there have been some might ones over the years. I'm not sure this year's match-ups are conducive to an upset. However Kamloops could yet do something IMO.

Anybody have any thoughts on this years offerings?

[Reider]

Pats' John Paddock thinks playoffs are a realistic goal next season
Greg Harder, Regina Leader-Post
Updated: March 22, 2019

"We need to come in with the mindset that we’re going to be in the playoff hunt and I don’t think that’s unrealistic.” - John Paddock

https://leaderpost.com/sports/hockey/regina-pats/pats-john-paddock-thinks-playoffs-are-a-realistic-goal-next-season

He discusses the inconsistent goaltending in the first half of this past season, mentioned the fact that the Pats are losing 3 OA's that were not point big producers, while other teams are going to be losing point producers. He also mentioned that there's always the possibility of players having a huge unexpected breakout season.

I know that John Paddock doesn't like to say too much to the media, but there's no doubt in my mind that making the playoffs next year is the top priority for the team. There's no way that having another developmental season next year will be acceptable. If we look at the other teams in the East Division, the Raiders will lose at least 8 of their best players, while Saskatoon will lose 7. Of course, it won't be a total loss. They'll lose 3 1998's each, but they can trade their extra 1999's to acquire other assets. Moose Jaw will lose their 3 OA's, plus they might lose one or both of Josh Brook and Justin Almeida if they go pro next year. Brandon will lose their 2 OA's plus they might lose Stelio Matheos, if he goes pro next year. Brandon appears to have less to lose in the off season than PA, Saskatoon and MJ. I haven't looked at the rosters in other divisions, but I know that other teams will lose as lot of talent as well (e.g. Lethbridge).

However, with all of the quality OA's that will need to be moved before next year's OA deadline and the Pats' possible log jam on defense, would moving a 2001 born defenseman for an OA make any sense? Trading a 3 year player for a 1 year player in a "hockey trade" might not make sense, so there might have to be other assets involved, but I think the Pats would benefit from having an OA defenseman on the team next year and it appears that there will be a lot of them available.