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Thread: 2019 Off-Season Discussion

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by chopper View Post
    I was interested to look at some of the scores out of opening night. It appeared that PA, Vancouver and Everett showed why they were all pennant winners. Edmonton plays tonight. From the scores it looks like those teams come as advertised. They all may get roughed up a bit, but I would be surprised if they didn't all advance. The Spokane vs Portland result was a bit surprising. Blades/Warriors and Lethbridge/Calgary look to be close wars. Usually the highest ranked team prevails.

    The first round is usually one where upsets can occur and there have been some might ones over the years. I'm not sure this year's match-ups are conducive to an upset. However Kamloops could yet do something IMO.

    Anybody have any thoughts on this years offerings?
    I think that:

    Portland vs Spokane (are about as close as it gets)
    Moose Jaw vs Saskatoon are close and to a lesser degree
    Lethbridge vs Calgary are close enough that they really wouldn't be big upsets if the lower ranked team(s) won.

    However, it would be a massive upset if teams like PA, Everett, Vancouver etc.. lost out in the first round. I wouldn't necessarily write Kamloops off yet either. They seem to have a decent enough mix of veteran and young talent, including 16 year old goaltender Dylan Garand, who's been doing a fine job filling in for Dylan Ferguson this year.

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Pats' John Paddock thinks playoffs are a realistic goal next season
    Greg Harder, Regina Leader-Post
    Updated: March 22, 2019



    https://leaderpost.com/sports/hockey/regina-pats/pats-john-paddock-thinks-playoffs-are-a-realistic-goal-next-season


    He discusses the inconsistent goaltending in the first half of this past season, mentioned the fact that the Pats are losing 3 OA's that were not point big producers, while other teams are going to be losing point producers. He also mentioned that there's always the possibility of players having a huge unexpected breakout season.

    I know that John Paddock doesn't like to say too much to the media, but there's no doubt in my mind that making the playoffs next year is the top priority for the team. There's no way that having another developmental season next year will be acceptable. If we look at the other teams in the East Division, the Raiders will lose at least 8 of their best players, while Saskatoon will lose 7. Of course, it won't be a total loss. They'll lose 3 1998's each, but they can trade their extra 1999's to acquire other assets. Moose Jaw will lose their 3 OA's, plus they might lose one or both of Josh Brook and Justin Almeida if they go pro next year. Brandon will lose their 2 OA's plus they might lose Stelio Matheos, if he goes pro next year. Brandon appears to have less to lose in the off season than PA, Saskatoon and MJ. I haven't looked at the rosters in other divisions, but I know that other teams will lose as lot of talent as well (e.g. Lethbridge).

    However, with all of the quality OA's that will need to be moved before next year's OA deadline and the Pats' possible log jam on defense, would moving a 2001 born defenseman for an OA make any sense? Trading a 3 year player for a 1 year player in a "hockey trade" might not make sense, so there might have to be other assets involved, but I think the Pats would benefit from having an OA defenseman on the team next year and it appears that there will be a lot of them available.

    Ya I read the article as well and let's just say that old JP isn't effervescent with the information/comments…LOL. He's old school all the way and that absolutely fine. I'm sure he's got lots of irons in the fire, blowing up his phone, talking deals, drafts etc. It's in all reality the nature of the Jr hockey beast. I completely and wholeheartedly agree that another developmental season will not be acceptable;No way! The ownership group spend the most amount of money of any team in the CHL running their franchise, and at last count had been running about 1 million in the red. They need playoffs to help offset their massive overages. Contrary to what you read or hear, some people in the organization very likely have their you know what's in a vice grip. Another poor start or descent into the basement will have serious repercussions. You can almost take that to the bank.

    A lot of teams will go through some of what we did this year, to varying degrees. There will likely be a larger number of teams who will be in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Pats are looking to be one of those teams I have no doubt. They have to. They have a bunch of returnees who are no longer rookies. They will have to pick the best of the bunch with the most upside, and move to enhance the remaining spots. They can't expect just to bring everyone back, put them on the team, and expect any difference from this year. I think their is a definition of doing the same thing over again, and expecting a different result..!!

    The abundance of OA's is a good thing for the Pats in that they should be able to find a good one for their one existing spot. The bad thing is that one of the OA's is still quite unproven. Do you hang on to see if your guy is high end or do you grab a good one while you still can? I imagine this will be sorted out by the OA cut down date. The log jam described might be one option to open to securing a good OA and a pick. I still feel there will be lots more interesting things to happen over this off season.

  3. #23

    Default Robbie Holmes/Jake Leschyshyn

    It seemed after Robbie was traded to Everett, he couldn't find his groove at all. He wasn't on the scoresheet much and didn't look too good.
    Now that playoffs have started, he looks like an altogether different player. He has three points in two games. The 3rd star on Friday night. Scored the winning goal last night.
    Jake and Nick have been leading Lethbridge. Jake has a Hat-trick last night for the Canes.
    I follow our ex-players, and hope they do well.

  4. #24

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    Yeah, there are a lot of former Pats in the playoffs this year and many of them are contributing. It was the Jake Leschychyn and Nick Henry show in Lethbridge last night. Jake Elmer and Scott Mahovlich are in Lethbridge as well. Robbie Holmes has been contributing in Everett. Riley Woods and Luc Smith have been valuable to Spokane. Jadon Joseph (Van) has been playing great lately and scored a goal last night, Sean Richards (Seattle) scored last night. Dawson Davidson had a huge year in Saskatoon and is a big part of the Blades. Aaron Hyman has been contributing in Tri-City, Egor Zamula in Calgary. This list could go on and on. Parker Gavlas is on Edmonton, Bryan Lockner and Jordan Hollett are in Medicine Hat, Kjell Kjemhus (Moose Jaw), Jared Freadrich (Portland), Jeff de Wit and Dawson Barteaux (Red Deer), Tristen Robins (Saskatoon), Riley Bruce (Tri-City), Tanner Sidaway (Victoria) etc.. And then there are players who did not play on, but were drafted by the Pats like Gary Haden (Saskatoon), Mike Ladyman (Spokane) etc.. And then there are former Pats playing in Junior A this year e.g. Lane Zablocki, Jonathan Smart, Erik Gardiner, Jared Legien. Marco Creta and Cole Muir are on the Kootenay Ice (Winnipeg next year), but they didn't make the playoffs.

    Also, an observation about the odds of teams making the playoffs:
    In the WHL there are 22 teams and 16 teams make the playoffs, which means 6 teams miss the playoffs.
    In the OHL there are 20 teams and 16 teams make the playoffs, which means 4 teams miss the playoffs.
    In the QMJHL there are 18 teams and 16 teams make the playoffs, which means 2 teams miss the playoffs.

    Out of the 3 leagues in the CHL, it would appear that WHL teams have lower odds of making the playoffs than teams in the other two leagues. However, the large majority of teams in all 3 leagues make the playoffs.

  5. #25

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    And only in this conference do 4 teams miss each year. The west conf is more like the other two leagues, where only two teams can fail to qualify.

    Playoffs are important for player development. Its a rise in stakes and level of play, and puts the regular season in perspective. and this is the only conference in all of Canada that seems to skimp. With the smallest markets that require playoff revenue to keep afloat (oops bye kootenay). And we get denied exceptional player statuses because of the long travel time between cities.

    And people wonder why the dub is falling behind. Get a cross-over playoff qualifier between conferences or just move one over to the west.
    Last edited by Some_Arrogant_Jerk; 03-25-2019 at 12:47 AM.

  6. #26

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    You make some great points SAJ.

    Does Hockey Canada ever state reasons publicly for not granting exceptional status to players in Western Canada? If Hockey Canada denies all exceptional player status applications due to travel time between cities, why do they accept applications from Western Canadian players to begin with? To pretend that they do not discriminate against Western Canadian born players? I believe Shane Wright is the 5th player to be granted exceptional status in the OHL, while the QMJHL has only had one player granted exceptional status. The WHL is still at zero. Apparently Matthew Savoie can't play in the AJHL next year either. It's very curious that he turned around and committed to the University of Denver shortly after being denied exceptional status. Apparently it's a tactic used by a lot of the top players (e.g. Mitch Marner and Max Domi) in order to try and force their way onto CHL teams that they want to play for. One of the WHL teams will certainly pick his name at the bantam draft and see if he is bluffing or not.

    The current CHL rules only permit a 15 year old players to play up to 5 games. Of course, there are exceptions. E.g. if a team has a lot of injuries, they can apply to the league to have a 15 year olds play more than 5 games and it is often granted. Of course, 15 year old players are also able to play with their respective WHL teams once their season is complete with their full-time teams. I understand why there is a 5 game rule. Most of these 15 year old players are not ready to play at the WHL level yet. At least not in an impactful way. However, I think that if a player is denied exceptional status by the league before the season starts, the player should still be able to make a case for exceptional status and the best way for that to happen is to perform at a certain level in those 5 games. If the player can demonstrate to Hockey Canada's satisfaction in those 5 games that he should be playing at the CHL level, then Hockey Canada should reserve the right to change their minds during the season. Perhaps they already do, I do not know. But if a kid is more than good enough to play in the league and he can demonstrate it in live games, then why not let him play more than 5 games? Or why not at least let him play in Junior A for the season? There's still a lot of traveling in Junior A, but at least it's within the province instead of across Western Canada and I"m sure by that point, the player is used to traveling across the province for tournaments etc.. anyways. In Matthew's case, he could play on the same AJHL team as his older brother Carter, which would certainly aid in his transition to junior hockey.

    Speaking of Carter, is there any chance that he's bluffing in order to get moved to a team that he wants to play on or is he serious about playing NCAA? It's difficult to tell if both brothers are serious about playing NCAA hockey or if one brother is bluffing or if they both are. I suppose we'll get those answers in due time. It sure would be great if Carter reported to the Pats in the fall or if the Pats could acquire a significant amount of assets for his rights. I think he'd be given all kinds of opportunities on the Pats next year to develop and help the team make the playoffs. All he has to do is show up to camp with a good attitude.

    A few other observations:

    - There's 3 teams (out of 6, 50% of the division) in the East Division alone that did not make the playoffs this year, which is more teams than in the entire QMJHL that did not make the playoffs.
    - Kelowna and Kamloops were tied at 64 points this year, which led to a tie-breaker game #69 between the two, in order to determine, which team would play Victoria in the first round. Kamloops won. However, Brandon finished with 70 points and did not make the playoffs. How cool would it be if Brandon had the opportunity to play Kamloops in a one game showdown to see which team would play Victoria in the first round? I understand that there are major logistical problems with such a scenario. Brandon and Victoria are 2,174 kilometers apart from each other. How would that work? And what if Brandon kept winning series after series? As it stands now, two teams share an airplane in the WHL final. Distance and costs involved are obviously huge setbacks.
    - Medicine Hat nearly took a 2 game lead on Edmonton last night, but Edmonton came back from behind to win the game and tie the series at 1-1. It sure would have made things interesting if Medicine Hat would have won that game.

    Disclaimer: I am not at all upset about the format of the playoffs or which teams are in the playoffs or the chances of a team in the WHL making the playoffs vs. the OHL or QMJHL. The Regina Pats have no business in the playoffs this year and I don't think anyone would argue otherwise. These are all merely observations for discussion purposes.
    Last edited by Reider; 03-25-2019 at 06:03 AM.

  7. #27

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    Rookie watch: Wagner on fast track to success with Kings
    by Mike G. Morreale @mikemorrealeNHL / NHL.com Staff Writer
    March 24th, 2019

    https://www.nhl.com/news/austin-wagn...ch/c-306095342

    Nice article on Austin Wagner. The very first thing stated in the article is:
    Austin Wagner was always a threat in junior hockey to average at least one breakaway a game with his incredible speed.
    I don't know where a person can even find stats on breakaways in the WHL, but i'm not surprised that he averaged at least one breakaway per game, while on the Pats. Some games he had 2 or more breakaways. This article got me thinking about Carter Massier and the amount of points he could put up if he averaged at least one breakaway per game. It would be great if Massier could come into next season even faster than he was this year as his hands and ability to put the puck in the net appear to be noticeably better than Wagner', at the WHL level.

  8. #28

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    Pats prepared to be patient with top prospects like Ty Smilanic
    Greg Harder, Regina Leader-Post
    Updated: March 25, 2019

    https://leaderpost.com/sports/hockey...ke-ty-smilanic

    Informative article by Greg Harder. It sounds like Ty Smilanic reporting next season is a long shot as he's committed to playing another year in the US developmental program. I'm not sure how often schools rescind their offers to players, but apparently it was the University of Denver that rescinded their offer to Ty. He did not rescind his commitment to the school. According to the article, he currently has no commitment to any school or team after next year. It sounds like he hasn't made up his mind yet, so there's a chance that he could report to the Pats in two years or he could still go the NCAA route.

    The Savoie situation could all get sorted out this summer or it could take well over a year before there's any more clarity. A WHL team will draft Matthew this summer for sure, but will he report to camp? Will he play any games? Not reporting to camp and not playing any games will definitely keep people guessing for at least another year.

    There's still Jake Johnson and other prospects that could report over the next couple of years.

    The Pats will have a veteran line up in 2 years. Most the current group of players will be in the 18-20 age range. If the Pats are able to get one or both of Carter Savoie and Ty Smilanic as well as some of their other prospects to report over the next couple of years, they could have a pretty good team.

  9. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Pats prepared to be patient with top prospects like Ty Smilanic
    Greg Harder, Regina Leader-Post
    Updated: March 25, 2019

    https://leaderpost.com/sports/hockey...ke-ty-smilanic

    Informative article by Greg Harder. It sounds like Ty Smilanic reporting next season is a long shot as he's committed to playing another year in the US developmental program. I'm not sure how often schools rescind their offers to players, but apparently it was the University of Denver that rescinded their offer to Ty. He did not rescind his commitment to the school. According to the article, he currently has no commitment to any school or team after next year. It sounds like he hasn't made up his mind yet, so there's a chance that he could report to the Pats in two years or he could still go the NCAA route.

    The Savoie situation could all get sorted out this summer or it could take well over a year before there's any more clarity. A WHL team will draft Matthew this summer for sure, but will he report to camp? Will he play any games? Not reporting to camp and not playing any games will definitely keep people guessing for at least another year.

    There's still Jake Johnson and other prospects that could report over the next couple of years.

    The Pats will have a veteran line up in 2 years. Most the current group of players will be in the 18-20 age range. If the Pats are able to get one or both of Carter Savoie and Ty Smilanic as well as some of their other prospects to report over the next couple of years, they could have a pretty good team.


    There is an awful lot of food for thought isn't there? I've also been following the LP articles over the past week or so, and while dearth on detail they are nevertheless interesting.
    Of the three mentioned Bohlsen was supposedly the player most likely to report a while back. IMO he would have advanced his stock playing in the WHL rather than USHL but his status is still in the air. Smilanic is a talent and perhaps any NHL team drafting him may have some input as to where he plays. It's highly improbable he will spend 4 years in a NCAA hockey program anywhere, hence no degree. As far as the Savoie's are concerned It's a bit strange that both kids have committed to Denver University???? Yet there has been some indication that the WHL is still on the table. I'm betting that more than anything these kids are being used by their parents as bargaining chips to pick and choose where they will play. In the end they are all pretty good players either top six or top nine according the JP. They still weren't anointed top three or anything like that. The WHL is a tough league and you still have to prove yourself at a higher level. Many haven't!! At the end of the day you can only play and hopefully win, with the ones that report to camp and win a spot.

    Johnson (dual citizen like Pratt) is on the radar but then so is Panowyk I believe. Johnson isn't too big a kid and I don't recall him being a scoring d-man. Fact is Panowyk is bigger but isn't a real high scoring either, however he is highly thought of. McGinley is big and looks to be ready while putting up a substantial number of points. The Pats have lots of d-men and could soon be in a glut position. The problem and perhaps it's a good problem is that when these kids come calling, the Pats may be fairly set. The new bodies could be distractions particularly if they are not substantially better than what's here. Then you are breaking up the team dynamic while you may not be bettering your club. We've been through trading away better depth than what we got in return.

    JP was talking about the Import Draft but kept his cards close. I somehow get the sense that he is going to forego the 7th pick in the Import Draft and keep Sedov. Considering how short of offensive talent they have one hopes the 7th pick doesn't turn out to be a special forward. As previously stated we have lots of d-men on the roster or on the cusp. Outside of Carter Savoie we don't truly have an elite forward on the horizon. The Pats have lots of work ahead and moves to make in order to become a playoff team next season.

    It was great to see Steel score a Hat Trick tonight. The Ducks did the right thing bringing him along slowly and get stronger. It will pay dividends for years to come.

  10. #30

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    I got the impression from the article that Kaden Bohlsen has his mind set on going the college route and that the chances of him reporting are slim to none. I didn't get the impression that his status is up in the air at all.

    Ty Smilanic on the other hand, it sounds like he is playing in the states one more year, but in two years from now, his status is up in the air. At that point, he can decide between the NCAA or the WHL, which pretty much makes it a 50/50 chance of him reporting in 2 years.

    When it comes to Carter Savoie's "complicated" situation, it sounds like the odds of him ever reporting are still unknown. He's at the point in his career / development, where he should be playing in the WHL next year.

    Johnson can always further his development in another league if he's not ready next year, then perhaps make the transition to the WHL in 2 years. If Sam McGinley makes the team next year, Sedov stays, and the Pats acquire an OA defenseman, there might not be room for Johnson next year anyways. John Paddock will make room for good players if he has to, (e.g. trade away a 2001) as there might be other prospects making a case, to be on the team, at camp.

    It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to keep Sedov. Add a good OA defenseman and the Pats are in good shape on defense next year. However, I definitely see the other side of it.. an elite forward, who can put up a lot of points may be more valuable to the team. But then there's also the team chemistry part of it to consider. And there's no guarantee that the Pats will be able to get an elite (e.g. 40G+) sniper in the draft. And if they do, there's no guarantee that he will report. It's something that John Paddock will have to figure out. He definitely has his work cut out for him, if the goal is to make the playoffs next year. I can't see Smilanic reporting next year, the Savoie situation is still far from being resolved and if the Pats don't get an elite import sniper in the draft, I"m not sure where they're going to get a point producing forward from this off season. It may have to come from within. Some of the current players may have to have "break out" seasons.

    Sam Steel was filling in for Ryan Getzlaf tonight, so he had some big skates to fill, but he did not disappoint. It's great to see him have some success at the NHL level. I agree, I think the Ducks have done of a good job with the way they've handled his development so far. He's definitely playing with more confidence now.
    Last edited by Reider; 03-27-2019 at 05:00 AM.

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